Lebanon has rarely undergone such critical moments since February 2005. Even if they are relatively peaceful, the period ahead will be uncertain and unsettling for the Lebanese. The "chemistry" of the region is changing, and the assumptions that could once be "taken for granted" are collapsing faster than we could have anticipated before our eyes. The setbacks of Iran’s project in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria have been severe by every measure.
Lebanon is taking center stage at the moment... as both locals and foreigners gather to bid farewell to Hezbollah’s former Secretaries-General, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Sayyed Hashem Safi al-Din, in a mass funeral that is likely to be the final chapter of one historical phase and the beginning of another that is no less fraught with challenges.
The major source of contention, here, is that neither the party’s leaders, its popular base, nor its regional sponsors are not showing any signs that have acknowledged the irreconcilability between an armed militia, whatever its banner, and the “state sovereignty” of countries that are supposed to be independent like such as Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.
In Lebanon specifically, Israel’s war machine exploited the "war in support of Gaza," going much further than it had in 2006, after Hezbollah had sparked a conflict (again) without consulting the "state".
Whether the party, its leadership, and its media admit it or not, Hezbollah has been defeated both militarily and politically. Despite this major setback, the vast majority of Lebanese have avoided gloating and schadenfreude at the expense of Hezbollah or its base.
However, the party has not shown them the appreciation they deserve. Instead, media outlets affiliated with the party and its self-proclaimed advocates continue to hurl accusations of “treason,” “Zionism,” “dishonor,” and “attempts to humiliate the party” (through Israel) at anyone who reiterates the call to build a state under Lebanon’s new president and reformist government.
Indeed, “internalized Zionism” has become the go-to accusation of talking heads and mouthpieces who are unwilling to give the country a chance to recover and embark on a constructive path. The path envisioned does not exclude or erase no one, as shown by the process through which the new Lebanese government was formed.
Going back to the current state of play today:
First, it is an extremely fanatical Israeli government rabidly hostile to any genuine peace that could allow for viable coexistence that inflicted this severe setback on Hezbollah, and behind it, Iran. Whether in Lebanon, the West Bank, or Gaza, Israel has always bet on suppressing moderate patriotic voices and undermining their attempts to build states while turning a blind eye to the rise of more hardline alternatives, to ensure a pretext for evading its obligations to ensure a just peace.
Second, the fanatics currently running Israel do not merely enjoy the unwavering support of Republicans in Washington. We have also seen the Republican leadership go to great lengths in encouraging Tel Aviv’s Likudists and settlers, egging on their displacement projects, first in Gaza and now in the West Bank.
Third, as Israel continues to press forward, “executive orders” are gaining pace in the US. The confusion in Europe and NATO, following Washington's recent positions on Ukraine, Canada, and global trade, leave the international community itself powerless as it tries to wrap its head around the ramifications of these developments. Consequently, there is little hope for any mechanism capable of curbing the destructive excesses that threaten moderation and credibility, on every level, in the foreseeable future.
Fourth, the current regional and international climate has left the Arab world in apprehensive anticipation of what the coming days could bring, amid several influential players’ efforts to maintain as much of "the initiative" as possible with regard to questions of collective security, Palestinian rights, and the containment of extremism. Recent Arab initiatives may, in fact, present an opportunity. Not only could they stop the backsliding, these efforts could also lay common ground that leaves a lasting impact even after the current phase of tension and uncertainty.
Moreover, Arab diplomatic efforts could help us take a step forward if they adhere to a clear set of principles. It is well understood that no one takes the deep-rooted Palestinian struggle - a conflict that has fueled the Arab-Israeli wars for over 70 years- lightly. However, genuine resolutions to this conflict now seem more marginal than ever before, especially if the principles of international relations that had once been robust continue to erode.
The spike in racism, particularly hostility toward immigrants, Muslims, and Arabs, is dangerous. It casts a heavy shadow over political life in Western democracies. Meanwhile, the geopolitical boundaries of Europe, which were last redrawn at the end of the Cold War- with the collapse of the Warsaw Pact, the breakup of the Soviet Union, Czechoslovakia, and Yugoslavia, and the reunification of Germany- are no longer guaranteed.
Even the borders of North America, once considered an island of stability, are now uncertain, and NATO is no longer a reliable security umbrella safeguarding "Western security" from an adversary that has, quite suddenly, become a preferred ally.
In East and South Asia, it remains unclear how the US and Russia- former “adversaries” that have become “allies-” will approach the two "bickering" Asian giants, India and China. Meanwhile, in Africa, where problems are piling up and foreign interventions and risky ventures abound, considerations vary and diverge, and interests often clash.
In conclusion, if all these issues have filled up the global agenda, then we Arabs must, at the very least, build the bare minimum of genuine common ground needed to confront the looming regional storms. Chief among these storms is the alarming exacerbation of Israel’s ambitions, Iran’s expected retaliation to the setbacks it has endured over the past two years, and the role that Türkiye could potentially play, especially given everything Ankara has already achieved in Syria and the signals it has sent regarding its intentions on the Palestinian front.
