US President Donald Trump is about to make the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia his first foreign destination as president for the second time.
The Kingdom is the headline of this unusual tour, especially in light of the rapid and pivotal shifts unfolding in the region and the world. He has several objectives, some tied to the domestic American political landscape, others to the situation in the Middle East and the Arabian Gulf, and others still to broader global geopolitics fluctuations.
For decades, the United States has been the rightful heir to the former British Empire, and this became especially clear after the Suez War of 1956. But does the present resemble the past? That is the pressing question today.
The Arab region now faces a world of competing agendas, irreconcilable strategies, and intersecting objectives. Rising global multipolarity and the game of political influence give interests precedence and render loyalties increasingly fluid.
Trump’s visit comes at a time of global “geostrategic fluidity.” Every scenario is on the table: from war to peace, economic prosperity to hardship, inflation to recession, hegemony to cooperation, and countless other binaries.
One of the most critical questions, however, is this: Do Trump and his new administration still have any trusted and loyal friends or allies outside the Arab region? Is he really betting on his visit making meaningful gains, successes that could offset some of the many challenges to both his domestic and foreign policies?
Before answering, a careful overview of the global map is needed. As France’s most famous president, General Charles de Gaulle, once said: “Keep your eyes on maps when reading politics.”
The fundamental changes among the United States’ immediate neighbors appear at the first glance - Canada to the north and Latin America to the south. The same applies to Europe, which has grown increasingly skeptical of its historical alliance with Washington.
As for China, it remains the United States’ rising competitor, the largest by geography and population. Meanwhile, any talk of reconciliation with Russia seems effectively stalled.
It seems that the Arabs have become the American president’s “lifeline” on several fronts. These are young and promising nations, blessed with divine resources and natural wealth, foremost among them oil - the lifeblood of civilization, at least until the age of alternative energy sources, which is probably not coming any time soon. Its geographic position at the very heart of the world is another gift of nature.
Trump believes that Riyadh has long been, and continues to be, a channel for engaging with the Kremlin. He sees Saudi diplomacy as having broadened and fostered a climate conducive to making breakthroughs and ending the deadlock that has shadowed the Joe Biden administration’s engagement with Moscow. Saudi diplomacy has sincerely and diligently sought to lift the nuclear “sword of Damocles” hanging over humanity amid the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Trump understands that the Arabian Gulf and the wider Middle East truly are the grand prize, not in terms of dominance or power, but visions for strategic cooperation. Over the past decade, Arab capitals have successfully navigated the challenge of non-alignment, avoiding dependence on a single global power and skillfully mastering the art of taking distance from the centers of global politics.
The fact is that Washington finds itself faced with nations and peoples who understand their destiny. The Arab world understands the future and its youths have the resolve to hold onto burning coals.
In this context, and during this visit, which Trump hopes to use as leverage for boosting his popularity, the Arab world, naturally, will present the core principles of this region to the president.
Foremost among them is the Palestinian cause, which Saudi diplomacy has long highlighted. The Kingdom insists on the establishment of an independent Palestinian state along the lines of the 1967 border with East Jerusalem as its capital. Another demand is an end to Israel’s violations of the ceasefire in Lebanon, its attacks on Syria, and its ongoing rampage in Gaza. Most urgently, Trump will be told that he needs to rein in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his military campaigns across the region.
The key takeaway that Trump must take from his visit is that the countries of the region yearn for peace and abhor war and conflict. They aspire to growth, not bloodshed. However, no progress can be made amid Israel’s intransigence or the threat of living under a knife’s edge in perpetuity.
Will Trump’s high-stakes, interactive visit succeed in reshaping the Middle East and contribute to reinforcing justice and peace?
