The Iraqi government has turned much of its attention to ensuring the success of the upcoming Arab League Summit in Baghdad. The path from the capital and back has been brimming with political positions and visitors, while decision-makers are seeking to stabilize the country to strengthen investment. Investment is a delicate object built on the binaries of politics and economy, geography and wealth, exports and imports (or more precisely, production across resources and transit routes). For this reason, both political and security stability are necessary prerequisites for a stable flow of public and private capital in a region teeming with wealth beneath the ground and rife with crises above it.
Baghdad has a geostrategic vision for transit routes. It sees these routes as a means for connecting the country to the world, positioning itself as the vital corridor between producers and consumers. Accordingly, it has turned to Damascus and Beirut, routes through which its resources can reach the Mediterranean basin and beyond. Here, the government has prioritized interest over positions, moving past the burdens of the past and pursuing political pragmatism that aligns with shifting geopolitical realities that, if they are misconceived, will corner Iraq, and if they are rejected, will isolate it.
In Damascus, the new political leadership understands the importance of its geographic position between Baghdad and Beirut. Tying politics to the national interest grants Syria geostrategic leverage, allowing it to play a role in the region once again. Its location makes it an unavoidable transit country. Thus, investing in geography could steer the new Syria toward stability- an effort being undermined by the rival states that benefit from Syrian instability and from impeding Syria’s efforts to further interests with both its Arab neighbors and more distant European partners. Indeed, there is a reason that Riyadh was the first Arab capital that Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa visited and Paris the first in Europe: both capitals are keen on seeing the sanctions on Damascus lifted and accelerating its political and economic reintegration into the international community.
Tel Aviv is suspicious of Syria’s efforts, meeting them with violence that borders on a declaration of war. Israel has exploited minority concerns, turning them into a pretext for exploiting Syria’s social and tearing its territory apart. The events on the Syrian coast, attempts to create chaos, and the tense situation in the south and in Suwayda could, at the surface, seem to reflect crises between the center and the periphery, between majority and minority. In this regard, the majority has a responsibility to uphold pluralism, while the minority’s responsibility is to integrate into a state that safeguards the rights of all citizens and grants no community privileges over another. Tel Aviv will not offer protection to anyone, nor is it an ally to anyone but its own interests.
Beneath the surface, we find the potential reactivation of the Iraqi oil pipeline to Baniyas, extending to Tripoli. We also find the Gulf states studying the idea of rehabilitating the energy transit routes through southern Syria that had ceased to operate after the occupation of the Golan, or of building new infrastructure. These developments pose a major geoeconomic threat to Tel Aviv, and it is once we see its actions from this angle that the reasons behind its war on Syria’s territorial integrity become clear.
In Beirut, the road to the airport is now open in both directions and air and sea ports are fully equipped to receive visitors. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s government has established the security and developed the services needed to ensure the return of Arab brothers and friends to Lebanon. The government is preparing for an economic transition, and one key goal is to transform the ports of Beirut and Tripoli into maritime gateways for Syria, Jordan, and Iraq through geoeconomic partnerships among the three countries. Salam began pursuing this project during his visit to Damascus and will continue to develop it during his upcoming visit to Baghdad.
In his article for Asharq Al-Awsat yesterday (Thursday), “Baghdad Summit: A Step Toward a New Arab Course” the Iraqi prime minister writes that: Amid the major shifts, open-ended conflicts, and complex challenges facing our region, Baghdad hosts a Summit in which leaders will not simply be running through the motions. Rather than a procedural event, Iraq sees this summit as a pivotal juncture and a historic opportunity to reinvigorate joint Arab action, seize the initiative, and position the Arab world as an active player in regional affairs instead of merely being the object of rivalries. Thus, if politics is distilled economics or if economics is distilled politics, then the economy is more than a political tool; it is the fuel behind efforts to reshape states’ political priorities.
