The Middle East has been witnessing unprecedented developments, and today it will witness another. The analysts will debate; one will talk about the historic moment while another will say it was a new dawn. The skeptics will say that one must not rush to conclusions and must instead wait to see the final outcome of these developments. They believe that the Middle East is a chronically depressed patient who resists all forms of treatment, those that work for him and those that don’t. They believe that people from this part of the world complain about the horrors of war while also being wary of peace.
My profession as a journalist has taught me not to get carried away with hopes and expectations. Our culture prefers the knockout blow instead of agreements on paper. But regardless, there can be no doubt that today will be historic.
For days now, we have been living in a world whose pace has been set by the stealer of the spotlight. His image is on every screen. We see his pumped his fist and pointed finger; the red hat, his tie, statements and social media posts.
He summoned Benjamin Netanyahu. He didn’t need to remind him that Israel continues to fight because of the weapons and money provided by the United States. He forced him to be a bit humble, rein in his savagery and to apologize. He had no choice but to reluctantly agree to the plan, along with the bitter implied pledge for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, even though such a move would benefit his country. Threatened with the “gates of Hell”, Hamas’ Khalil al-Hayya had no choice but to put a stop to Yahya al-Sinwar's Al-Aqsa Flood Operation.
He is Donald Trump. He plays, maneuvers, advances, retreats, fires a shot, misses and changes course. The whole world watches his moves and surprises. He is the Ronaldo of the world stage, even if his shots sometimes miss the goal. He is more exciting than a Hollywood star. He sparks alarm and reassures. He makes a threat and then strikes a deal. He pretends to go to the extreme and then strikes an agreement with less severe terms.
The world is setting its pace to his moods. One social media post is enough to rattle the markets. One fiery statement is enough to spark alarm. He courts the emperor of China and says he is eager to meet, but then does a 180 and punishes him, sparking a global trade war. Many have said that he is delusional and sells delusions, but nevertheless, he does make a difference when he and his country step in.
His statements can be vague and very blunt. His mood swings are unpredictable. One day he took the difficult decision to abandon the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. On another, he dared to make an unprecedented bold move by ordering the killing of General Qassem Soleimani, who had bloodied American forces in Iraq and pumped rockets and funds and built tunnels in four regional countries. Upon his return to the White House, he ordered attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. His and Israel’s air force helped weaken Iran’s regional role.
When he is full of conviction, he does not hesitate to make difficult decisions. He shook Ahmed al-Sharaa's hand and lifted sanctions, consolidating the “Resistance Axis’” loss of Syria.
He stumbles, becomes angry, but never feels defeated. He had hoped to be a peacemaker in Ukraine and other countries. He summoned Volodymyr Zelenskyy and was overly harsh with him. He offered the master of the Kremlin a valuable gift, but he was not tempted by it. Vladimir Putin is not Benjamin Netanyahu. Russia is not Israel. The Russian military is ready to compete with the US, not tremble before it. But Putin will need him when he senses that it is time to end the war in Ukraine.
Putin too is a major player, but the Ukrainian war diminished his room to maneuver and travel. He does not visit France, Britain or Germany. China and North Korea are not big enough for him. At the beginning of the 20th century, he appeared as a star that was renovating the Soviet Union. The West believed that it had found a partner in him. The Ukrainian war stole his halo and Trump stole his spotlight.
These are the days of Trump. His aides praise him endlessly, saying he is the greatest president in the history of the US, that he made the impossible possible and that he had awakened the American monster, whose role had been diminished under his predecessors.
There can be no denying his ability to change situations completely. The Israeli jets stopped bombing Gaza; the crossings were reopened and aid has been allowed through; and the hostages and corpses will be released in exchange of prisoners. The Israeli army has withdrawn to the agreed upon line. Trump emerged as the one who hands out solutions and guarantees.
He revised his position on the war on Gaza. There will be no displacement, no “riviera” and no annexation of the West Bank. In return, Hamas will say goodbye to its arsenal and tunnels and stop ruling Gaza. The role of the Palestinian Authority hinges on the reforms it will carry out. The situation may lead to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. Trump has benefitted from the fatigue shown by the warring parties and the flood of international recognitions of the State of Palestine, thanks to Saudi and French efforts. He also benefitted from Israel’s international isolation, informing Netanyahu that Israel cannot fight the world alone.
This is not an easy tale. The devil thrives in the details after all. The situation demands that the American leadership continue to rein in the hot heads. It must continue to show good leadership and listen to the advice of partners and mediators.
These are the days of Trump. The scene in Sharm el-Sheikh will concern the people of the region and beyond, including the armed factions and leaders of the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. This is an attempt to reshape the Middle East and only the final outcome will demonstrate whether these efforts have been a success or not.
