Four years have passed since the Russian–Ukrainian war began.
Its protagonists could hardly have imagined it would last this long. Those who launched it in Russia believed it would be resolved in a matter of days, but days turned into weeks, weeks into months, and months into years.
Although the conflict has burned for so long that many observers can scarcely recall its beginning, it has yet to be extinguished. Both sides continue to fuel the fighting, even as each, privately, wishes it would end. Both are constrained by stubborn pride and by fear of stating openly what is understood, lest they appear weak before their own publics.
If there is one lesson this war has underscored after four years, it is that a world war does not necessarily require multiple fronts. The First World War was fought across several fronts, as was the Second. By contrast, this conflict has largely been fought on a single front between Russia and Ukraine, or at most two. Yet it has become global in every meaningful sense.
Ukraine is not, in fact, fighting alone; it has become Europe’s forward line of defense. Had Ukraine fought in isolation, the war would likely have ended long ago. Europe, in turn, has not stood alone. The United States also fought alongside Ukraine until about a year ago, when President Donald Trump took office and adopted a markedly different approach.
Following this year’s Munich Conference, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio traveled to Hungary, where he announced US support for Prime Minister Viktor Orban as he prepares for an electoral contest in the coming days.
The visit reflected a shift in US policy toward its long-standing European allies. Within the European Union, no leader is closer to Russian President Vladimir Putin than Orban. Since the war began, he has dissented at nearly every EU summit; when his partners move in one direction, he reliably chooses another.
Brussels was displeased by news of Rubio’s visit to Budapest and the rhetoric he delivered there.
Notably, when Rubio spoke in Munich, he struck a conciliatory tone toward Europe, referring to the United States as a daughter of the continent. Upon arriving in Budapest, however, his message appeared to shift abruptly in the opposite direction.
When Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick addressed a dinner hosted on the sidelines of the conference, he made little effort to conceal his hostility. His remarks went so far that European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde left the room in anger, unwilling to tolerate such language from an American official on European soil.
In the past, jurists used to say: “Many a surge of resolve has revived a nation.” Nations may lie dormant for long periods, seemingly close to exhaustion, until a crisis awakens their resolve and restores their vitality.
Lagarde appeared to echo that sentiment as she departed, later declaring that Europe is capable of moving forward with those willing to do so, and that moving forward is no longer optional for the continent.
After four years, no observer who has followed the war from the outset can say that Russia has won or that Ukraine has been defeated. Each side has registered gains and suffered setbacks. In the final analysis, what remains is a war of attrition—one that may extend even to those supplying the weapons and funds. If its effects are to be felt most sharply anywhere, it will be in European treasuries repeatedly asked to contribute more.
Will Durant once set out to write The Story of Civilization, which became, in many ways, a chronicle of war in human history. He found that the years of peace are fewer than the years of conflict. This war, now in its fourth year, is simply another addition to that long record.
