It has become clear that the war waged by Iran is against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its Gulf sisters, and is not an Iranian war against the US or Israel. Iran has attacked Saudi Arabia with more than 1,000 drones since last February, in addition to ballistic missiles that targeted civilian and military facilities. The Iranians expanded the war through the territories of two countries, Iraq and Yemen, to surround Saudi Arabia.
Riyadh, in contrast, surprised Tehran by establishing a bloc uniting three countries bordering Iran. Today, the alliance tips the balance of power against Iran. Türkiye and Pakistan have become confrontation states rather than onlookers. A force with strategic depth, greater military capabilities, 400 million people - four times that of Iran - and more than 1,400 kilometers of land borders overlooking Iran.
Internationally, Türkiye is a member of the western NATO alliance, and Pakistan is a nuclear power militarily close to China. This is a Saudi move that will affect conflict management and negotiations, and will gradually lead to Iran losing most of the power cards it enjoyed in its war with the United States.
Last month, Iran escalated its war on northern and southern Saudi Arabia by opening two fronts from the borders of Iraq and Yemen. This was a dangerous development that coincided with Saudi Crown Prince arranging the "Makkah Agreement," and the announcement of the tripartite military alliance with Türkiye and Pakistan, which had been in the making since last year.
This is the second alliance built and announced by Saudi Arabia within a single week, following the establishment of an international naval military bloc led by Riyadh.
The importance of the alliance with Türkiye and Pakistan manifests on three fronts: deterring Iran, the oil market, and Arab and Islamic public opinion.
The first front is Iran itself. Tehran's escalating military activity exposes its intentions to expand the scope of the conflict, and perhaps create a new geographical reality in the Gulf imposed by force. The Riyadh-Ankara-Islamabad alliance aims to create a balance that deters Iran from thinking about advancing toward the Gulf region, as well as targeting Jordan, Syria, and Yemen. Expanding the scope of the war will cost Iran's leadership dearly.
Tehran's strategy in its confrontation with the US was based on holding oil hostage. It made blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and bombing producing countries, its winning card in pressuring a superpower it cannot face on equal military terms. The new Saudi axis deprives Iran of this card.
The tripartite alliance enjoys significant international support, given that most governments preferred to remain neutral in the war between the US, Israel, and Iran. Many countries, including those that consider confronting Iran justified, found that the war was launched without sufficient legal and diplomatic preparation.
The international backing for the Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani tripartite axis can be sensed from the broad international support for the multinational naval alliance announced by Saudi Arabia last week, in which 43 governments participated in its meeting at the Ministry of Defense building in Riyadh. Both projects, "Makkah" and the "Red Sea," are defensive and directed against Iranian aggression, and both were prepared politically and legally.
The front built to confront Iran is not for Saudi Arabia alone, but also covers the Gulf region and the eastern Arab world. The objective is to stop Iran, which lost most of its centers of influence following the destruction of Hezbollah and the downfall of its ally, the Assad regime, and subsequently decided to destabilize the region and create a new geopolitical reality enabling it to threaten Arab states. The features of Iran's plan have become clear since the resumption of the war late last February; its attacks have focused on Saudi Arabia, the rest of the Gulf states, and Jordan more than targeting its two adversaries in the war, the US and Israel.
There is also the oil front defended by the alliance, a battle anticipated by the entire world. Iran is closing the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, bombing Gulf production and export facilities, and seeking to bring the world to its knees under its terms. Immediately upon the announcement of the new tripartite alliance, oil markets reacted swiftly, welcoming the news with a drop in oil prices on the international market.
As for the third front, it is the struggle over public opinion - over the hearts and minds of around 300 million Arabs and more than a billion Muslims worldwide. They were watching a war marketed to them as American-Israeli aggression against a peaceful Muslim state. Because the war was not resolved early on, Iran focused on justifying its aggression and portraying its attacks on its neighbors as though they were in the American-Israeli camp.
In facing the alliance, it will be difficult for the Iranian propaganda machine and its platforms to convince 1.5 billion people of its false narrative that Pakistan, Türkiye, and Saudi Arabia are nations against Arabs and Muslims. Thus, Tehran's leadership hiding underground will lose the propaganda war. We will see Tehran's aggressive behavior change during the coming days.
