On that bitterly cold day in the winter of 2022, Vladimir Putin launched his swift, sweeping offensive against Ukraine, hoping for its surrender within days. My almost certain impression at the time was that if the assault had targeted one of the major Western European nations instead of Ukraine, its fate would have been inevitable surrender. Throughout the four-and-a-half years that have passed since that offensive - and given the horrific human losses, massive urban, economic, and heritage destruction witnessed in the Russian-Ukrainian war, alongside the difficulty of achieving a decisive victory in either direction - my impression remains the same, and has in fact become more confirmed.
My long-term residency in Paris, my direct knowledge of Western Europe, and the dozens of analytical articles I have written about the European continent make me fully realize how alienated French, German, British, Italian, Spanish, and other peoples have become from the concept of war. In their eyes, war has become an absurd and rejected phantom from a long, tragic past from which they suffered immensely, and which they finally succeeded in burying deeply, with absolutely no desire to return to it. This made NATO at the time, particularly after the collapse of the socialist bloc, resemble a skeleton that was neither useful nor intimidating.
For these reasons, the Russian offensive against Ukraine struck Western European nations and their peoples like a thunderbolt, suddenly jolting them out of their deep slumber. However, the transition from the dream of permanent peace to the nightmare of war does not happen overnight. Despite the massive military and financial aid provided to Kyiv, Western European populations still hope that the Russian-Ukrainian war is merely a passing "summer cloud" after which the promised peace will return, while the Ukrainian people wage a battle of life or death that will decide their future for times to come.
Four years after the Russian offensive on Ukraine, in late February 2026, the major American-Israeli offensive against Iran took place. This was also a stunning military strike aimed at toppling the Vilayat-e Faqih regime and sparking a popular uprising to overthrow it. However, the war here as well has not achieved its objective, and the conflict continues to unfold in chapters for an indefinite period, placing the entire region before fateful choices.
Just as the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the Ukrainian interior differed sharply from its impact on the peoples of Western Europe, the impact and outcomes of the offensive on Iran varied significantly between the Israeli interior and the American and Western publics in general. While an overwhelming majority of Israeli Jews - exceeding 90 percent - currently favors resuming the war with Iran, this figure does not exceed 30 percent of American public opinion, a factor which, alongside others, explains Trump's stances.
What does this reality indicate? First, it points to the existence of a warring West and a non-warring West. In fact, the West as a whole is non-warring, with the exception of two types of societies: the first is Ukraine and its surrounding Eastern European countries, which have similarly suffered long under Russian hegemony and are prepared to fight to the last breath to avoid returning to how things were. The second type is Israeli society, which embarked on a major settlement venture in Palestine and is now fighting one of its existential battles.
The image of war and peace in the West remains far more complex than it appears. Both the American and European West are deeply divided between two major currents: on one side, the liberal current that is open to globalization, non-traditional lifestyles and values, and the influx of newcomers to the West from Asian and African societies; and on the other side, the hardline nationalist current, which adheres to national identity and conservative values, and opposes waves of migration to the North. The most common symbol of the first current remains Barack Obama, while for the second it is Donald Trump. The conflict between the two currents is sharp, fateful, and relentless.
Where, amid this, does the war on Iran stand? There is no doubt that the international liberal current - whether in Europe or North America, with its parties, leaders, media, universities, research centers, and economic forces - is, behind its various slogans and arguments, implicitly sympathetic to Iran. It is betting on Iran to prolong the war and saddle the nationalist current with its human and economic losses, in the hope of defeating the Trump front in upcoming electoral battles and preventing European nationalists from coming to power in France, Germany, Britain, Spain, and elsewhere. This current's most dangerous enemy is the conservative nationalist camp competing with it over the management of society, not Iran, which lies miles away behind seas and oceans.
