A series of consequential events that rarely occur simultaneously unfolded last week. The most interesting, though also the least significant, was US President Donald Trump’s arraignment in a Manhattan courtroom over hush-money payments to pornographic actress Stormy Daniels. Alleged to have used campaign funds to buy her silence about a sexual encounter they had had, Trump was arrested, had his fingerprints taken, and charged with 34 crimes, including these payments. He could be imprisoned if convicted.
Trump has denied all charges and claimed that prosecutors are Democratic partisans. Regardless of the eventual verdict, the trial sets a historic precedent whose implications will go beyond the next presidential elections and continue to affect US politics overall. Other ongoing investigations, including those tied to the insurrection on Capitol Hill by Trump’s supporters, could be more grievous.
The second development is Finland’s accession to NATO, becoming the alliance’s 31st member. This dangerous and historic move had not been unexpected, and it marked a radical shift in the country’s security policy. NATO forces are now stationed just a few hundred kilometers away from Finland’s border with Russia. Moscow retaliated with threats of “countermeasures,” while US President Joe Biden said he was excited about the move. Sweden is expected to follow in Finland’s footsteps as pressure on Türkiye mounts on the heels of an unpredictable election whose outcome could nullify Türkiye’s resistance.
The third development is the meeting in Beijing that brought together the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia and Iran, which was held to follow up on last month’s agreement to reestablish relations.
As for the fourth development, it is the visit of French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to China. Claiming that Beijing is capable of directly and radically tipping the balance of the conflict, Macron urged it to do more to end the conflict and not to take steps that threaten Europe’s supreme interests.
The fifth development unfolded in the Middle East and has two tracks. The first is the escalating violence against Palestinians in the occupied territories. The latest round of violence began with the formation of the fanatical Israeli government a couple of months ago and peaked last Wednesday when, firing rubber bullets, throwing tear gas, and wielding batons, the Israeli police raided the Al-Aqsa Mosque Compound. The raid was followed by clashes in Jerusalem and the West Bank, and then the firing of rockets from both Gaza and South Lebanon; in turn, Israel later retaliated to these attacks that “united the arenas.”
The second track is the mounting tensions between Israel and Iran, which have been manifesting themselves in Israeli military operations in Syria against Iranian targets, the latest of which led to the deaths of two IRGC officers and experts. Iran declared that it would avenge the assassinations, and the Israeli strikes on western Syria on April 1 that targeted several air bases, which are believed to contain IRGC and Hezbollah drones, were reportedly aimed at thwarting a major coordinated retaliatory attack by Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas. The next day, Israel announced that it shot down a Shahab suicide drone in the Gaza Strip.
Iran might choose to retaliate in a different manner, like attacking Israeli-linked tankers as it has done in the past, or launching a terrorist attack against Israeli citizens abroad. The barrage of rockets fired towards Israel from South Lebanon on Thursday, the most dangerous attack since the 2006 war, could give us an idea about Iran’s other options.
This tense atmosphere adds to the events taking place in Israel, where extremist parties and their more extreme rivals are bickering over an array of issues. Meanwhile, Washington is becoming increasingly concerned about Iran’s nuclear enrichment program.
According to Western media reports, the Biden administration has recently discussed a proposal for a temporary Iran agreement with its European and Israeli partners. The deal would see some sanctions lifted in exchange for Tehran putting parts of its nuclear program on hold. These reports indicate that the United States has not ruled out diplomacy and a revival of the 2015 deal, despite having removed it from the agenda last year due to Iran’s provision of military assistance to Russia amid its war on Ukraine and Tehran’s clamp down on domestic protests.
Would Tehran accept such a proposal from the US, and would this kind of deal serve the interests of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states? Iranian officials would probably rebuff a new proposal and refuse any deal that offers anything less than the previous agreement. The United States would then probably walk back on this proposal to finally satisfy the Iranians.
All of these developments, among many others, demonstrate that global tensions and frictions are escalating a critical juncture for the international order that has been in place since World War II. They show that the world has entered a new phase as the balance of power between the global giants and their alliances are being recalibrated. In the Middle East, there are serious attempts to avoid being dragged into a new cold war that would cost the region dearly and undermine the interests of its states.
Moreover, China has made notable inroads into the region. It has broken the monopoly that the US had held as the only power that could offer regional actors guarantees, going from a soft power paving the Silk Road to an arbiter that can settle disputes in the region, as it did with the deal between the Kingdom and Iran. And although Russia continues to wage its war against Ukraine, it has not stopped providing crucial support to its ally, the Syrian regime, facilitating its recognition by Arab states and working on a rapprochement between the regime with Erdogan’s Türkiye.
As we have mentioned in previous articles, the United States now has to adapt to the emergence of competitors both within and outside the region. While it would be premature to consider their rise as a crushing defeat for the US, we should recognize that the US has lost the initiative. Indeed, even its ally Israel is defying White House directives.
As for Saudi Arabia, its political pragmatism has allowed it to develop innovative strategies for safeguarding its national security and furthering its supreme national interests. The Kingdom is seeking to resolve crises and pave an independent foreign policy path (without severing ties with its traditional allies) through more vigorous diplomacy. The same could be said of other countries in the region, including Egypt and Jordan, as affirmed by Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullahian during the announcement of the agreement with Riyadh when he suggested that his country had been working to improve ties with other regional powers.
To sum up, current developments point to a decline in US influence and give a preliminary idea of how the US and Chinese divide will share influence in a new international system. Washington is fortifying its control over the Western bloc and the opponents of China in Asia, while Beijing is expanding through new alliances. Indeed, even Russia is part of its axis.
