It was 1971. China secretly hosted a strange, unfamiliar and enigmatic visitor known as Henry Kissinger.
During that period, the country existed under the influence of Mao Zedong, widely regarded as the "Great Master."
It was not easy for the Richard Nixon administration to send its foreign minister to a country governed by a leader who perceived imperialism as a mere "paper tiger" and who shed a river of American blood when he participated in draining the US enemy in the wars in Korea and Vietnam.
Kissinger exploited the intense hostility between the two most prominent communist capitals, Beijing and Moscow. He accessed the Chinese continent, which does not resemble his country, and enabled Washington to employ the “Chinese card” to curb and tame the Soviet Union.
Nine years before that historic visit, the man, who is currently sitting in “Henry Kissinger’s office” and knocking today at the Chinese gate, was born in America. His name is Antony Blinken.
More than half a century later, Blinken heads to the same country. He does not need anyone to remind him that he is visiting another China in a different world.
Today’s China is not Mao’s China, which was packed with hundreds of millions of poor people and whose economy faltered with rigid ideological prescriptions. The country was lucky when, after Mao, it gave birth to a man haunted by the future, not the past.
Deng Xiaoping injected a drop of realism into the veins of his country and its ruling party to reconcile it with the times. He preserved Mao’s reverence but prevented him from leading the country from his grave. He pushed away old slogans and used the vocabulary of progress and development, fought poverty, and benefitted from the mechanisms of progress away from the obstacles and cages of ideological fundamentalism.
The China that Blinken is visiting is the country that lifted about 700 million citizens out of poverty. Today, it is a dynamic and competitive economic and technological fortress that also relies on an increasingly powerful army. It is an indispensable force to avoid the world’s rush into the abyss of disastrous consequences.
The visit comes at a time that is so different from the era of Kissinger’s famous trip. The Soviet empire committed suicide, and now sleeps in museums and books. From its ashes, Russia was born, and today lives in the shadow of a wounded warrior named Vladimir Putin. The man is leading a massive military and political coup against the world of the only superpower, which emerged after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the death of the Soviet Union.
Putin threw a massive bomb into the lake of the world. If the footsteps of Mikhail Gorbachev erased the world that was born from World War II, which also bore the marks of Joseph Stalin and his great role in deterring Nazi Germany, then Putin’s tracks pushed the world that carries the ideas of Gorbachev into the abyss.
The unipolar world received a fatal blow. The current international turmoil bears a clear title. Today, we are witnessing the birth of a multipolar world open to many dangers. America was adapting its strategy to contain the new enemy, but China’s rapid rise is greater than its ability to bear.
The story goes beyond the allure of the “Silk Road”. It relates to the features of a major coup in the adult club. It is clear that Blinken seeks to adjust to the stage of new dangers.
America has no interest in seeing China go too far in supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. There must be a truce that prompts Beijing to maintain a realistic policy that allows Washington to achieve its goal of preventing Russia from emerging victorious from the quagmire of Ukrainian blood. A truce allows postponing the explosion of the Taiwan matter, as the world is unable to confront two massive bombs at the same time.
China, in turn, has no interest in a sharp confrontation with the West. A conflict of this kind will threaten its broad and vital economic relations with America and the European Union. But Beijing, which is skilled in using the weapon of patience in negotiations, wants guarantees that the United States will not single it out in a race similar to the one that led to the destruction of the Soviet Union.
Another major event is happening this week. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be a dear guest at the White House, on a visit that may turn historic in a multipolar world that is looking for new balances. It is clear that America has concluded that it is impossible to contain the accelerating Chinese rise without relying on another Asian giant, India.
Modi’s country has the largest population in the world. It is a huge market that provides cheap labor, enjoys live technological capabilities, and lives in a democracy that shares some values with the West, despite its peculiarities. The West increasingly believes that it must face the danger of China remaining “the world’s factory”.
Modi’s policies are quite realistic. More than half of his army’s weapons are from Russia. He has so far refrained from explicitly condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Moreover, India is a prominent member of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). It will not be easy for America to use the “Indian card” to curb the rise of the Chinese giant, just as it exploited the “Chinese card” to restrain the ambitions of the Soviet Union.
The world is different, so are the powerful cards. But any decisive American decision to deepen military cooperation and technological exchange with India will constitute an important Asian and international development.
Establishing the foundations of a serious alliance between America and India that also includes Japan and South Korea will convey a strong message to China, and will represent a milestone in the world looking to rearrange seats in the adult club.
What can other countries do in the turbulent world looking for new balances? In this transition phase, there will be a place for countries that master the reading of transformations...Countries that are able to prepare their economies for the world of competition and the technological race, and to build diverse relationships on the basis of common interests and exchange of experiences...Countries, whose economy supports the independence of their decisions and the freedom of their choices. In international relations, a marriage of convenience is much better than a marriage of emotions.
