Russia has become a problem for its enemies and allies alike after the armed mutiny by Wagner militia leader Yevgeny Prigozhin against the Russian Defense Ministry and army and his attempt to march on Moscow.
Prigozhin’s actions showed that President Vladimir Putin is not standing on stable ground on the internal front, otherwise how would have Prigozhin launched an organized and planned mutiny without the knowledge of Russian intelligence?
How could he have led his fighters to just 120 miles from the capital, Moscow, without any real resistance from the army and how could he have entered the military command center in Rostov?
Why was Putin forced to turn to Belarus’ president to mediate with the Wagner leader to stop his march towards the capital and topple the military command there after Putin had initially vowed to respond decisively to the mutiny?
Why did Putin turn to Belarus on the same day he vowed a “firm response” against those who “organized the armed mutiny, raised weapons against comrades in arms and betrayed Russia,” while describing the developments as “treason”?
All of the above shows us that Russia is not in crisis, but rather has become a crisis for its allies and foes. We are hearing less and less demands in Europe and the United States for the halt to the war in Ukraine because cracks have started to appear in Russia itself.
Instead, we will hear rising voices stressing the need to continue with the support to the Ukrainian forces because the results of the wrong war are beginning to appear in Russia, its army, among its elite and the militia that was reared by Putin in parallel to the military institution.
This is a lesson to nations. A state, no matter how powerful, cannot grow dependent on mercenaries or militia forces, instead of the regular army, to defend the country. Not even a nuclear state like Russia could do this.
Today, Putin’s foes, such as the US, Europe and of course, NATO, find themselves in a crisis over how to deal with him. Putin had stood on shaky ground and was on the brink of real chaos in Russia. That could have led to nuclear weapons falling in the hands of gangs or a reckless man, which would be a threat to the whole world.
As for Moscow’s allies in Tehran and Damascus, they too are in crisis. They also had turned to Wagner. Sudan and others had resorted to the group. They are in crisis over how to rely on the alliance with Putin, who disappeared the day Wagner marched on Moscow before later delivering a televised address. Who knows what future lies in store for Putin’s Russia.
Putin is now waging irregular battles on several fronts. He has no easy choices, whether in the war with Ukraine and the Europeans and Americans. He is waging the battle of uniting internal ranks and restoring his strong image.
This is all a crisis for his allies and foes. His allies are doubting whether the strong Putin can stay in power, while his foes fear a weak Putin that could lead to a nuclear disaster or fierce Russian retaliation in Ukraine.
