The NATO summit held on July 11 and 12 sent many messages. The first was sent through the choice of location. Vilnius is the capital of Lithuania, the first republic to declare its independence and withdraw from the Soviet Union, on March 11, 1970. The other Soviet republics born from the disintegration and fall of the Soviet Union then followed. The summit was held against the backdrop of the rise of a new Cold War climate between NATO and the Russian Federation - a war fueling the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and being fueled by it.
The second of these messages was that Türkiye would not veto Sweden’s NATO membership. Sweden, a neutral state during the previous Cold War, has now joined NATO. There are two fundamental factors that explain Türkiye’s withdrawal of its veto, which had been standing in the way of Sweden’s membership.
Firstly, it obtained, with the help and mediation of the United States, the Secretary-General of NATO, and other members of the alliance, guarantees from Sweden regarding the latter’s support for the Kurdish opposition, which manifests itself in various forms. Türkiye considers this support a threat to its national security, regardless of the justifications for allowing certain activities of this opposition on its soil that Sweden had put forward in the past.
The guarantees were crystallized by the mediators, resulting in agreements aimed at prohibiting or containing these activities, which are nonetheless seen differently by Sweden and Türkiye. While the former sees most of these activities as political, Türkiye believes that regardless of its form, Kurdish opposition activity is a threat to its national security.
The second factor is that the Europeans promised that they would reinvigorate Türkiye’s ongoing application to join the European Union, which had been stalled since 2018 for a variety of reasons. Türkiye’s accelerated accession to the EU would ensure political, economic, and other gains for it. Its role, not only in Europe but also specifically in the Middle East, would also bolster its geopolitical and economic position in relation to both regions and the links between them.
The summit also saw further breakthroughs between Türkiye and Greece, which now supports the former joining the EU. The Turkish President announced that the Parliament should vote on allowing Sweden to join once it reconvenes in October.
The third message was not, as Ukraine had hoped, support for its NATO membership. Ukraine was promised that it would not be made to take the traditional path of accession, which consists of a preparatory stage during which membership requirements are to be fulfilled and are then assessed to determine the viability of membership. Instead, Ukraine was promised that it would be allowed to join the alliance after the ongoing war ended.
The G7 countries within the alliance “gifted” reassurances to Kyiv - all the military assistance and security guarantees Ukraine needed, including the provision of more advanced weaponry over the course of the war.
Many believe that the gesture of promising accession aims to reinforce Ukraine’s negotiating position vis a vis Moscow when the time comes, allowing for concessions from Russia that would make peace (founded on a complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine), possibly in exchange for the latter foregoing NATO membership.
Everyone now realizes, though some were late to do so, that Moscow will not acquiesce to Ukraine becoming a NATO member under any circumstances. Its membership is a bargaining chip to be used in the future. Meanwhile, NATO will continue to provide the weapons and guarantees needed to support Ukraine in the war it is fighting, with NATO, against Russia.
The fourth message is that NATO was reborn after the ongoing war at the heart of the struggle between the West and Russia in Europe. This comes after it had been becoming less relevant since the Cold War. Efforts to revive and expand towards the Asia-Pacific region are underway as the US seeks to contain China’s vigorous and accelerating geopolitical rise and tensions with Russia escalate. Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev has warned of the risks of sliding into a third world war.
While this will almost certainly not happen, the escalation of tensions between the West and Russia indicates that we could see an expansion in both the geographical scope and firepower used in the ongoing war.
Another indication of these risks is the decision taken by NATO that all members must spend at least 2% of their GDP on defense.
In conclusion, the Vilnius summit announced the rebirth of the Cold War regime, though it is not as chaotic as some thought or wished it would be in the recent past. It is a system that has not yet crystallized; both its rules and the form of its alliances are currently taking shape.
