Thursday, August 15, will be one of the important days for the Middle East “if things go according to plan.” The political, diplomatic, and military preparations for it are stronger than anything we have ever seen in a Middle Eastern war.
The two major wars- June 1967 and October 1973, and here I am talking about conflicts with Israel- witnessed battles that had limited direct ramifications and in which the element of surprise was decisive. In the first, an Israeli attack determined the war through the very first blow. In the second, it was the Egyptians and Syrians who launched a surprise offensive. While it did not decide the winner or loser, the attack resolved a much more significant issue: it put an end to the wars fought between regular Arab armies and Israel. With Egypt out of the picture, other countries could not wage them.
Although it also began with a Hamas surprise attack on October 7th, this war is different from its predecessors in every way, so much so that it could be called a singularly unique war. That is true for its regional, and even global, impact, which has surpassed anything we have ever seen before. This is also true for the number of parties involved, whether directly or not, as well as the scale of the human losses. Indeed, even the other losses are unprecedented, evident from the continuous bleeding that even the strongest and richest country in the world (the US) has not escaped.
The war also stands out in terms of its duration and the fears of expansion that it has created, amid fears that it could turn into a regional or international conflict. Furthermore, it has had domestic implications, not only for the countries directly involved but across the globe. It has become the leading global issue, taking precedence over the Ukrainian crisis in terms of the attention and coverage it has received. And speaking of the Ukrainian crisis, the world has yet to find a solution for Ukraine, only managing to prevent it from becoming a global and nuclear conflict.
Thursday... The fifteenth of August, which unprecedented preparations and efforts are being made for, is the day, some are betting, that this exceptional war begins to transition into something else. The transition begins with a temporary ceasefire, a limited prisoner exchange deal, and a reduction of bloodshed, destruction, and regional and international anxiety. If we make the same bets as the optimists, and there are a hundred “maybes,” this day could mark the first step toward addressing the major issues that preceded the Gaza war, including the two biggest issues: Iran and a peace settlement for the Middle East. Although these matters are already being managed and contained, they are not yet being solved.
The developments that have unfolded over the course of the war, as well as their regional and international repercussions, make Thursday (whether the first step to ending the war and limiting its regional and international expansion is taken then) a watershed moment. Nonetheless, we should note the worrying efforts to foil this effort, and there is no guarantee that Thursday will end well.
The two powers that can (and possibly have an interest in) derail the proc are Iran and Israel. Iran, wounded in its pride, prestige, and even its claims as a regional, international, and nuclear power, remains primarily concerned with how to address this deep dilemma through direct military action. It is difficult to determine the shape of this action, and dealing with its consequences will prove even more challenging. The question now facing Iran, Israel, the US, and the entire world is whether a risk will be taken before Thursday, or if caution will prevail again. This matter appears far from settled.
As for Israel it remains, and will likely indefinitely remain, captive to Netanyahu's agenda and his personal domestic considerations, as well as his determination to improve the terms or ensure absolute victory, and to maintain his coalition. His decisions, behavior, and even the risks he is willing to take, hinge on their implications for his personal future. Worryingly, he thinks that things are going in his favor. Despite reservations about his performance, he has an American mandate in his pocket, as well as a clear lead over his rivals in the polls. He is therefore heading into Thursday after having already mitigated the damage, and it seems that he is leaning toward agreeing to a partial deal that achieves gains without abandoning his objectives.
We should also keep in mind that he needs to exaggerate the fear of his coalition collapsing. It is a key requisite for continuing his battle, and something he can use to receive more lenient treatment. Indeed, it is not unlikely that the coalition will stay with him until the end, wherever he goes.
I ask myself... Have I overestimated the importance and significance of this Thursday? Perhaps, but the outcome of efforts on this day is a key factor in determining whether the Democratic Party remains in power. Let's also consider that the US mobilized militarily as the Biden administration bets on success, and how this mobilization is being used to shape the day after, not only in Gaza but across the region. In this context, the significance of success on Thursday becomes clear.
In conclusion... The chances of the deal succeeding are higher than ever before, but the war, in its entirety and with its underlying and direct motives, will continue, albeit at a different pace and taking different trajectories.
