Lebanon’s Politicians Should Be Careful

Accusations of betrayal and a barrage of insults have been hurled at anyone who cautioned Hamas, specifically Yahya Sinwar, since the war in Gaza began following the events of October 7th. Today, everyone is aware that we have lost our chance to salvage what could have been salvaged.
Today, the fear that Lebanon could face the same fate. No missed opportunity to save Lebanon, as a state and a political entity, is likely to present itself again in the future. The offers Lebanon rejects today will be difficult to obtain tomorrow, and delays will bring only destruction to Lebanon and the Lebanese.
This is not hyperbole, nor is it fear mongering. It is a warning. Despite their gravity, the developments currently unfolding in Lebanon are liable to aggravate, and we have not even seen half of what had been expected. This is not speculation but a measured, cold read on reality.
This reading is based on what Netanyahu has done and is doing in Gaza, and now in Lebanon, specifically against Hezbollah, as well as what Netanyahu has done and is doing in Iran. Moreover, the international community approves of this; it is not incapacitated, as some claim.
The events of October 7th, as many now realize, albeit late on, were Israel’s 9/11. That attack in 2001 sparked two wars and brought down two regimes. This seems to be the conclusion that the West, specifically Washington, has reached.
Today, everyone in the West believes that Netanyahu has managed, for example, to eliminate most of Washington’s high-value Hezbollah targets. These painful blows could crush Tehran’s proxies in Lebanon and Syria, a goal that the West had been unable to achieve.
Everyone sees an opportunity today to restore Lebanon, allowing it to become a state with real institutions. There would be no harm in Hezbollah choosing to turn into a political party, but Lebanon should become a state that has a monopoly on arms, and it should make decisions of war and peace, not an Iranian proxy.
As for Washington, it “has settled on an altogether different approach: let the unfolding conflict in Lebanon play out," according to a report by Reuters published yesterday. "US officials have dropped their calls for a ceasefire, arguing that circumstances have changed,” the report adds.
US State Department Spokesman Matthew Miller said "We do support Israel launching these incursions to degrade Hezbollah's infrastructure so ultimately we can get a diplomatic resolution," at a press conference yesterday.
Thus, the worst is inevitably yet to come, and Israel will continue to destroy Hezbollah’s infrastructure. A ground incursion, regardless of its scale, is forthcoming. It could become fiercer if we see an escalation in Lebanon or Iran, which is anxiously awaiting Israel’s response.
All this is happening at a time when Syria today is far weaker than it had been in 2006. Iran is now clashing with Israel directly, and it is more concerned with safeguarding its interests than its influence in Lebanon, while the US is committed to protecting Israel against any Iranian attack.
Accordingly, Lebanese politicians must recognize the severity of this imminent threat and understand that the proposals they reject today will not be on the table tomorrow. My final and most important message is addressed to Mr. Nabih Berri: he has a historical duty to seize the opportunity now, build a Lebanese state, and ensure that future generations of Lebanese do not look back on this period and say: "let it be remembered but not repeated."