Two weeks ago, I wrote about the region's wars and those striving to say, "we are victorious," but "none of the parties involved seek a victory for statehood, nor to save lives, reinforce national values and citizenship, or achieve peace. Instead, they are seeking short-term victories that bring no durable benefits to the region nor allow the countries involved to move forward."
Today, I will write about "defeat." This article might be published following an agreement for a ceasefire in Lebanon, and states, parties, and militias behind the propaganda machine will begin promoting this so-called victory. The same campaigns will be launched but with the use of new technology.
So, what is defeat? How do we say that one party or another has been defeated? In the Lebanese context, this question is not answered through the details of the agreement or what has been achieved for Israel, Lebanon, or Hezbollah, even if we have every indication to suggest that the party has achieved nothing and has withdrawn from the country’s southern border by force of arms.
Specifically in discussing defeat, the question is different; we must look at the bigger picture. If a ceasefire is agreed upon and it leaves Hezbollah pointing its weapons inward, that would be a defeat for the Lebanese state, Israel, and international mediators.
If Lebanon and its politicians do not learn the lesson of this war, and the state does not become placed above all else, with decisions of war and peace in its hands and the army as its protector, that would be a crushing defeat for Lebanon. The Lebanese must remember that everyone in the region is genuinely seeking a ceasefire.
However, not everyone is keen on funding another reconstruction that follows those of the past, like that of 2006, simply because Hezbollah decided to gamble on a delusional "unity of arenas" war. Indeed, states are not charities. That is also a new defeat for Lebanon.
In Gaza, if the ceasefire merely guarantees the safety of the Hamas leaders who remain in exchange for a hostage release, that would also be a painful defeat for the cause and for the people of Gaza, both living and dead.
If the Gaza war ends without the return of the Palestinian Authority, the notion of the Palestinian state, its future, and all the sincere efforts to establish the Palestinian state and resolve this conflict, would suffer defeat.
For Israel, this is also a defeat - even if Netanyahu secures terms that essentially and straightforwardly amount to the surrender of his opponents, namely Hezbollah, such as Israel’s right to retaliate or the withdrawal of Hezbollah beyond previously agreed upon limits in the southern borders.
It's a defeat because the goal is not to move Hezbollah 7 kilometers or 20 from the Lebanese-Israeli border. The goal is stability and peace. As long as the deal is for an "armistice agreement" or a mere "ceasefire," rather than a real peace project, it is a defeat.
The same applies to Gaza. Even if Hamas surrenders, as long as there is no peace project that resolves this conflict, everything that has been achieved would be a defeat for all parties, primarily Israel. This is the bigger picture; everything else is insignificant.
