Political Schizophrenia and What Remains of Hezbollah

We have been accustomed to Hezbollah’s adventurism and siding with the wrong front. It ignores the authority of the Lebanese state, which has been economically devastated and had once been torn apart, during the civil war sparked in the 1970s. That war ended with the Taif Agreement, which developed a power-sharing framework that meant Lebanon’s factions no longer needed to make military alliances or maintain their arms.
Hezbollah suffered an unprecedented and severe blow, both in terms of security and personnel- a “heavy” and unparalleled blow. However, it has not overcome its political schizophrenia, as is evident from the statements of what remains of the party's leadership. “We have entered a new phase of open-ended struggle,” they insist; however, the remnants of Hezbollah find themselves in a position of unprecedented weakness, both politically and militarily.
Although it was “dirty,” the Israeli military campaign against Hezbollah exposed the vulnerability of Hezbollah’s intelligence apparatus, even more than the frailty of its fighting forces. This apparatus, long glorified by Hassan Nasrallah, lost its entire top, including Nasrallah himself, in just a few hours, to a swift strike that suggests a major intelligence breach.
Lebanese patriots want to rid the country of Hezbollah, whose military forces have long pointed their weapons at the interior. It has intimidated and terrorized local rivals to impose a foreign power’s will on the country. Lebanon has, for decades, been the victim of Hassan Nasrallah’s adventurism. His glorification of “resistance” and promises of “fierce” retaliation always came at the expense of the South, Lebanon at large, and the country’s infrastructure. The Israeli threat to send Lebanon “back to the Stone Age” (the go-to bombastic image Israel’s army commanders draw after every Hezbollah rocket attack- attacks that rarely cause any real military damage to the Israeli army or its bases in Haifa, the closest targets to Hezbollah’s rockets) continues to loom.
Hezbollah is a regional, indeed almost global, phenomenon that has triggered numerous crises and problems around the world after becoming an Iranian proxy in the region. It became more than a political party, turning into an armed militia operating within the state’s territory but beyond its control. While analysts classify Hezbollah as an Iranian proxy, it has proven to be little more than a guard tasked with protecting Iran’s weapons depots in southern Lebanon and the southern suburbs of Beirut. Nothing illustrates this point more clearly than Nasrallah’s failure to use those missiles without Iran’s permission- even in self-defense- before he was assassinated in a fortified underground shelter.
Iran’s influence in the region began to recede with the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, and its decline culminated in the death of Nasrallah. Moreover, a series of intertwined developments have now ended Hezbollah's regional role. Although Iran invested hundreds of billions in Hezbollah, recent Israeli strikes wiped out the largest Iranian fruit of Iranian expansionism in a matter of hours.
The formula Hezbollah has hidden behind for years, liberating Palestine and eradicating Israel, remains its slogan. However, Hezbollah’s engagement in the Gaza war was timid, nearly negligible. It merely retaliated to Israeli airstrikes on its cadres, failing to provide any meaningful support.
The Hezbollah militia cannot remain hegemonic or rely on foreign powers to confront the Lebanese state. It cannot continue to operate like a state within a state, perpetuating instability in Lebanon and keeping the country on the brink of civil war. Hezbollah’s actions serve both regional and international agendas by exploiting Lebanon’s many problems, including its “democracy” built on sectarian power-sharing. Today, Lebanon is vying to break free of Hezbollah and others like it, with the rise of a new generation that had played no role in fueling sectarianism nor in imposing the armed presence of Hezbollah.
This raises an important question: Can Hezbollah’s demise be explained by swift Israeli military strikes that lasted only a few days and hours? Or was it also the result of an Iranian decision to pull the plug on the party? The answer will become clear soon, through its policies, alliances, and negotiations, but I believe that Hezbollah was likely abandoned by its patron.
The armed Hezbollah is now a painful remnant of the past for Lebanon and the Middle East. However, as a political party, it could coexist with the Lebanese people and the region, on the condition that it renounces violence, disbands its militia, and concedes the “one-third veto” that has paralyzed life in Lebanon and its surroundings.