Israel’s attack on Hezbollah’s stronghold in Beirut’s southern suburbs has put the Iran-backed party in a difficult position.
Stopping attacks on the suburb, known as Dahiyeh, was among the main reasons that led Hezbollah to agree to the ceasefire with Israel in November.
Israel attacked Dahiyeh on Friday for the first time since the ceasefire after rockets were fired against Israel from Lebanon. Hezbollah denied involvement in the attack and no one has claimed responsibility for it. The party believes that attacks are being carried out against Israel to give it an excuse to again wage war on Lebanon.
The strike on the suburb forced Hezbollah to cancel its “Quds Day” commemoration that was set for Friday afternoon. Hezbollah chief Sheikh Naim Qassem was expected to deliver a speech at the event.
This was the first time since 1985 that the party is forced to cancel the commemoration that it usually holds on the final Friday of the holy fasting month of Ramadan.
The strike on Dahiyeh will only undermine the relative stability that was restored to the area since November 26 when the ceasefire was announced.
Since then, the area, which was heavily bombarded by Israel during its war on Hezbollah, has gradually been revived, with most houses being renovated and schools and hospitals reopening.
The strike has reawakened concerns that Dahiyeh will again come under Israeli attack should more rockets be fired at the country.
Friday’s attack has also limited Hezbollah’s political options.
Lebanese sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the party “cannot retaliate unilaterally to the strike and will leave it up to the state to handle the situation.”
“Regardless of whether the party can or cannot respond to Israel, any military retaliation on its part will play into Israel’s hands that wants to reignite the war,” they added, saying the Lebanese authorities want to avoid conflict at all costs.
However, Hezbollah’s failure to retaliate “means Israel has free rein to carry out targeted strikes wherever and however it wants undeterred. Dahiyeh will therefore become another area on its list of permanent targets.”
“This will pressure the Lebanese authorities and Hezbollah alike because the strikes will lead to new waves of displacement and stop operations at vital institutions, such as schools and businesses,” they explained.
Ultimately, “Hezbollah has very limited options at the moment. Israel’s ambitions, meanwhile, are growing to strike political agreements with Lebanon that go beyond the security deal that is already in place,” the sources said.
