Killing of Seif al-Islam al-Gadhafi Raises Succession Questions in September Current

Seif al-Islam al-Gadhafi (file photo, Reuters)
Seif al-Islam al-Gadhafi (file photo, Reuters)
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Killing of Seif al-Islam al-Gadhafi Raises Succession Questions in September Current

Seif al-Islam al-Gadhafi (file photo, Reuters)
Seif al-Islam al-Gadhafi (file photo, Reuters)

Since the killing of Seif al-Islam al-Gadhafi, son of Libya’s late leader Moammar Gadhafi, in the western Libyan city of Zintan last Tuesday, urgent questions have surfaced over who might succeed him in leading the political current he represented.

The questions reflect Seif al-Islam’s symbolic status among supporters of the former regime, known as the September Current, a reference to backers of the September 1 Revolution led by Moammar Gadhafi in 1969.

Search for new leadership

Othman Barka, a leading figure in the National Current that backed Seif al-Islam al-Gadhafi, said supporters of the former regime had yet to agree on a new leader but retained the organizational and political capacity to overcome the current phase and later move toward an alternative leadership framework.

Barka told Asharq Al-Awsat that ties to Gadhafi and his sons had been both emotional and political, but said that what he described as national work would continue. He said organized efforts would be made to reach a new leadership after the repercussions of the killing were overcome.

It remains unclear how Ahmed Gaddaf al-Dam, the political official in the Libyan National Struggle Front and one of the most prominent figures of the former regime, views the future leadership of the September Current following Seif al-Islam’s killing.

Sources close to him told Asharq Al-Awsat it was too early to speak of a new leadership while mourning ceremonies continued in Bani Walid.

Gaddaf al-Dam limited his public response to reposting a statement by those describing themselves as supporters of the Jamahiriya system on his Facebook page. He stressed unity, saying the killing would not lead to the fragmentation of the current and that September supporters remained a single, solid bloc.

In Bani Walid in western Libya, where Seif al-Islam was buried on Friday, shock was evident in the tone of Libyan activist Hamid Gadhafi, a member of the late leader’s tribe. He told Asharq Al-Awsat that clarity over the future leadership would emerge after about 10 days.

Possible successors

Libyan social media pages circulated the names of potential successors, including Seif al-Islam’s sister, Aisha, and his brother, Saadi. Libyan political analyst Ibrahim Belqasem rejected that view, telling Asharq Al-Awsat that the only remaining driver for supporters of the former regime would be the emergence of an unexpected, nonpolitical figure, describing it as an attempt to rescue the current.

After the fall of Gadhafi’s rule in 2011, following 42 years in power since the 1969 revolution, his supporters reemerged under the banner of the September Current. They are popularly known as the Greens, a reference to the Green Book.

Fragmented components and the absence of unified leadership mark the September Current. Seif al-Islam was widely seen as a central symbol among supporters, as well as among political figures and groups calling for the reintegration of former regime supporters into political life and for the recognition of their rights.

Nasser Saeed, spokesman for the Libyan Popular National Movement, one of the political arms of former regime supporters, said he expected a national political leadership to take shape in the coming phase to continue what he described as national work until the country stabilizes. Libyans can determine their future.

He said the emergence of a new leader or symbol was a matter for a later stage, stressing that the project was ideological rather than tied to individuals.

Saeed told Asharq Al-Awsat that Seif al-Islam al-Gadhafi’s legacy lay in a unifying national project that rejected foreign intervention and sought to restore sovereignty and stability. He said Seif al-Islam had represented hope for overcoming the crisis and that his project extended the path of the September Revolution as a liberation choice that still retained supporters.

Structural challenges

Organizationally, the former regime cannot be confined to a single political framework. Its structures and leadership are diverse, including independent organizations and figures.

Among the most prominent are the Libyan Popular National Movement, founded in 2012, and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Libya, formed in 2016 by politicians and tribal leaders in support of Seif al-Islam al-Gadhafi.

Their representatives increased their presence after 2020, whether in the Geneva forum that led to the formation of the Government of National Unity or in UN-sponsored structured dialogue tracks, before suspending participation following Seif al-Islam’s killing.

Voices within the September Current believe the killing marked a decisive turning point that cast heavy shadows over the ability of former regime supporters to forge unified leadership, citing structural difficulties rooted in historical disagreements between what is known as the old guard and supporters of change led by Seif al-Islam.

Khaled al-Hijazi, a prominent political activist in the September Current, agreed with that assessment, saying Seif al-Islam’s symbolic role had helped balance internal disputes due to his reformist project before the February 17 uprising.

Al-Hijazi told Asharq Al-Awsat that the loss of that symbolism could revive old divisions and complicate efforts to recreate an inclusive leadership, amid internal and external factors that make unification highly complex in the foreseeable future.

Barka said differences were natural, stressing that the current was not a closed party and believed in democracy and pluralism. He said generational competition did not amount to conflict and noted there had been no violent clashes between supporters of different paths within the September Current.

He concluded by saying that the diversity of approaches served a single goal: the freedom and prosperity of Libyan citizens and the building of a sovereign state capable of overcoming the crisis that has persisted since 2011.



Iraq PM Vows to Prevent Attacks After French Soldier Killed

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends an event in Baghdad, Iraq, Jan. 9, 2024. (Reuters)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends an event in Baghdad, Iraq, Jan. 9, 2024. (Reuters)
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Iraq PM Vows to Prevent Attacks After French Soldier Killed

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends an event in Baghdad, Iraq, Jan. 9, 2024. (Reuters)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends an event in Baghdad, Iraq, Jan. 9, 2024. (Reuters)

Iraq's Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani vowed on Friday to prevent attacks after the killing of a French soldier in an attack in the autonomous Kurdistan region.

Sudani expressed his "solidarity" with France in a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron.

He said that "the necessary measures will be taken to prevent the recurrence of such incidents", and an investigation will be conducted into the attack.

The president of Iraq's Kurdistan region Nechirvan Barzani, in a call with Macron, also expressed his condolences and called for the Iraqi government to "set limits on outlaw groups".


Syria, Lebanon Test Ties Amid Regional Escalation

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun meets with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa during the Arab Summit in Egypt, March 4, 2025 (AP)
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun meets with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa during the Arab Summit in Egypt, March 4, 2025 (AP)
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Syria, Lebanon Test Ties Amid Regional Escalation

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun meets with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa during the Arab Summit in Egypt, March 4, 2025 (AP)
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun meets with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa during the Arab Summit in Egypt, March 4, 2025 (AP)

Before a March 10 phone call between Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun to discuss regional developments and their impact on the security and stability of both countries and the wider region, it appeared the two leaders had not been in direct contact since each assumed the presidency a little over a year ago.

In the days before speaking with Aoun, al-Sharaa contacted several Lebanese political figures. On March 6, he spoke with Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and former Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt. On March 8, he called Kataeb Party leader MP Sami Gemayel.

During those calls, al-Sharaa expressed “solidarity with the Lebanese people in these difficult circumstances Lebanon is going through.”

He said the reinforcement of the Syrian military presence along the Syrian-Lebanese border on March 3 was intended solely to strengthen border control and safeguard Syria’s internal security. He described the steps as similar to measures taken along the Syrian-Iraqi border.

The contacts came against the backdrop of war in the region and broader regional developments, and included discussions on the future of Syrian-Lebanese relations. Al-Sharaa stressed the importance of continued coordination between the two countries.

According to the Kataeb Party’s official website, the call between al-Sharaa and Gemayel took place in a positive atmosphere and included discussion of opening a new chapter in bilateral relations.

Al-Sharaa said ties between Syria and Lebanon should rest on “mutual respect between the two states,” alongside stronger economic cooperation and integration that serves the interests of both peoples.

However, the two days following the March 8 call triggered speculation that relations between the two countries were strained because of current and past issues.

Al-Sharaa moved to dispel that speculation with a direct call to Aoun. The following day, French President Emmanuel Macron said he had spoken with both leaders and welcomed the dialogue, saying “the coordination launched by the Lebanese and Syrian leaderships is important” and that France would continue to support it.

Overall, the contacts have raised cautious optimism about neighborly relations at a sensitive moment.

Asharq Al-Awsat asked Syrian analysts how they see relations between the two countries evolving in the near term amid ongoing regional developments.

Foundations of the relationship

Bassam Barabandi, a Syrian analyst and former diplomat based in Washington, said Damascus approaches relations with Lebanon on several foundations.

First is non-interference in Lebanon’s internal politics. Second is border security, particularly preventing Hezbollah from operating inside Syria or transferring weapons through Syrian territory, as well as halting drug smuggling through Syria, which requires direct cooperation with Lebanon.

Third is the issue of Syrians held in Lebanese prisons, which he said is under discussion.

Barabandi said contacts between the two sides, including the call between al-Sharaa and Aoun, produced understandings on several issues, notably mutual non-interference in internal affairs and handling files related to Syrian fugitives in Lebanon and Syrian refugees.

He noted that Lebanon’s political system requires engagement with multiple actors, since the president is only one part of a broader governing structure. Communicating Syrian assurances or positions, therefore, requires outreach to different political leaders.

In that context, al-Sharaa contacted Gemayel to thank him for efforts aimed at accelerating solutions for Syrians detained in Lebanon, and in recognition of his political weight among Christians.

The Syrian president also contacted Jumblatt, Lebanon’s top Druze leader.

Further contacts with other figures could follow if needed, Barabandi said.

He added that the Syrian government supports steps taken by the Lebanese government regarding Hezbollah, particularly efforts related to disarming the group.

Expanding dialogue

Jumaa Mohammed Laheeb, director of research and studies at the Syrian Future Movement, said the current dynamic between Damascus and Beirut reflects a dual reality: relatively advanced security and political coordination alongside political uncertainty.

That uncertainty is most evident in sensitive files, particularly those related to detainees, he said. In that context, al-Sharaa’s call with Salam can be understood.

Laheeb said the call and Syria’s expression of support for Lebanon amid the regional escalation focused on two main issues: border control and reassuring the Lebanese government that Syrian military deployments aim to strengthen control within Syrian territory rather than stoke tensions in Lebanon.

Such communication reflects effective operational channels between the two governments, particularly after understandings reached in recent years on smuggling and border crossings. But those channels alone cannot resolve politically and historically sensitive files such as detainees and the missing, he said.

Laheeb said the Lebanese presidency sits at the center of complex domestic balances involving Hezbollah’s influence, as well as Christian, Sunni and Druze segments.

Al-Sharaa’s initial reluctance to call Aoun directly — while opening communication with figures such as Jumblatt and Gemayel — reflects a Syrian effort to broaden the range of Lebanese actors it engages with.

Damascus appears to be seeking greater regional legitimacy by opening dialogue with forces opposed to Hezbollah’s dominance, he said. But key decisions on issues such as detainees, refugees and border security still pass through domestic circles in which Hezbollah retains considerable influence.

The detainee file, he said, remains a bargaining chip rather than a purely humanitarian priority, leading to delays and partial solutions rather than a comprehensive settlement.

Testing relations with Damascus

Syrian researcher Ahmad Abazid said Damascus does not want to become involved in the current war or intervene militarily against Hezbollah. However, he said the Syrian government has, from the outset, made support for the Lebanese state a cornerstone of its relationship with Lebanon, alongside what he described as genuine hostility toward Hezbollah.

For that reason, he said, it is natural for Damascus to support Aoun’s initiative to disarm the group.

At the same time, Abazid argued Hezbollah would be the weaker side in any confrontation with the new Syrian army. The history of relations between the group and Syrian opposition would likely push many fighters to confront Hezbollah if such a battle emerged, he said.

He also pointed to rising tensions. Hezbollah said Syrian territory had been used as the launch point for a second Israeli operation in the Lebanese town of Nabi Sheet in the Bekaa Valley. Shortly afterward, the Syrian army said Hezbollah had fired artillery shells at the Sarghaya region in western Syria.

Abazid said the escalation could reflect two possible dynamics. One is an Iranian attempt to spread instability across the region during the current war to increase pressure on all sides, particularly Arab states.

The other is that Hezbollah feels threatened by the Syrian side, especially as Lebanese actors have refrained from launching military initiatives against the group and after remarks by US envoy Tom Barrack suggesting possible Syrian intervention in Lebanon.


Iraq PM Vows to Prevent Attacks After French Soldier Killed

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends an event in Baghdad, Iraq, Jan. 9, 2024. (Reuters)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends an event in Baghdad, Iraq, Jan. 9, 2024. (Reuters)
TT

Iraq PM Vows to Prevent Attacks After French Soldier Killed

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends an event in Baghdad, Iraq, Jan. 9, 2024. (Reuters)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends an event in Baghdad, Iraq, Jan. 9, 2024. (Reuters)

Iraq's Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani vowed on Friday to prevent attacks after the killing of a French soldier in an attack in the autonomous Kurdistan region.

Sudani expressed his "solidarity" with France in a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron.

He said that "the necessary measures will be taken to prevent the recurrence of such incidents", and an investigation will be conducted into the attack.

The president of Iraq's Kurdistan region Nechirvan Barzani, in a call with Macron, also expressed his condolences and called for the Iraqi government to "set limits on outlaw groups".