Despite the continued fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran, the conflict does not appear to have entered a phase of genuine calm. Amid mediation efforts led by Pakistan to prevent renewed confrontation, US intelligence assessments indicate that China and Russia continue to provide Iran with military and technological support, enabling Tehran to restore a large part of its capabilities and prepare for potential future conflict.
According to informed sources, Beijing is considering transferring man-portable air defense missiles to Iran through intermediary countries, making it difficult to trace their true origin. These missiles are small, easy to transport and conceal, and can be used against low-flying aircraft. Reports suggest that Tehran is seeking to compensate for losses suffered during recent confrontations by acquiring additional systems of this kind.
US President Donald Trump had previously confirmed that an American F-15E aircraft was brought down over Iranian territory by a shoulder-fired heat-seeking missile, saying that the Iranians “got lucky.” So far, there is no conclusive evidence regarding the source of the missile used, particularly given that Iran locally manufactures missiles copied from older Chinese models.
Experts believe that any new transfer of such missiles would mark a shift by China from supplying Iran with components and spare parts to providing complete weapons systems, a development many regard as a clear escalation in the level of military support.
Russia, meanwhile, plays a different but equally significant role. According to American reports, Moscow provided Tehran during the early days of the war with detailed information about the locations of US warships, aircraft, and radar systems in the region. It also supplied satellite imagery that enabled Iranian forces to assess the results of their strikes and identify new targets. Military assessments indicate that Iran’s recent strikes against US positions in the Middle East were more accurate than previous operations, which some analysts attribute to the intelligence and expertise Tehran obtained from Russia.
After years of using Iranian drones in Ukraine, Russia has reportedly begun transferring its experience in managing drone swarms and conducting synchronized attacks designed to overwhelm air defenses and clear the way for precision missiles.
Years before the war began, Russia helped Iran develop its reconnaissance and surveillance capabilities. In 2022, Moscow launched a satellite on Tehran’s behalf, giving Iran enhanced continuous surveillance capabilities over military sites. Russia also supplied advanced radar systems capable of detecting stealth aircraft and ballistic missiles from long distances, in addition to components from the S-400 air defense system.
On the Chinese side, support extends beyond direct military equipment to include technology and infrastructure. Beijing allowed Iran to use the Chinese BeiDou satellite navigation system, reducing Tehran’s dependence on the American GPS network. During the 2025 conflict, Iranian guidance systems linked to GPS were subjected to jamming, but Tehran later managed to adapt a large portion of its weapons systems to operate through BeiDou, reducing the effectiveness of those jamming operations.
The US Treasury Department has also imposed sanctions on Chinese companies accused of supplying Iran with electronic components and navigation equipment used in the development of drones and missiles. Other reports have pointed to shipments of materials used in the production of solid rocket propellant reaching Iran from China aboard vessels already subject to international sanctions.
Western sources say some Chinese companies provided satellite imagery and advanced analyses of US troop movements during the conflict, while Washington accuses other firms of supplying technical training and equipment to Iranian military industries.
The United States is not primarily concerned with what occurred during the fighting, but rather with what is taking place afterward. Every round of combat weakens part of Iran’s military capabilities, yet Tehran succeeds within months in rebuilding much of what it lost thanks to external support. American officials worry that the current ceasefire could become an opportunity for Iran to rearm and prepare for another confrontation.
Some experts believe sanctions no longer produce the results they once did, because Russia and China have become increasingly capable of circumventing them, while Iran has developed extensive networks to obtain the equipment and technologies it needs despite the restrictions imposed on it.
Western intelligence circles note that cooperation among Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran no longer consists merely of arms deals and intelligence exchanges. It has evolved into an integrated network encompassing technology, financing, technical expertise, and alternative transportation routes. As Western oversight of supply chains has intensified, Iran has increasingly relied on “front companies” and “complex commercial networks” to obtain sensitive components used in military industries.
Iran has also benefited from Russian and Chinese expertise in reducing the impact of sanctions on sectors linked to military production, allowing it to maintain the pace of development and rebuild its capabilities faster than many previous Western assessments had anticipated.
At the same time, neither Moscow nor Beijing appears interested in a prolonged and open-ended conflict in the Middle East, as both would suffer from rising energy prices and disruptions to global trade. Yet neither wants to see Iran weakened or collapse, because maintaining a strong regional partner helps constrain American influence and drain part of Washington’s military and political resources.
For this reason, many analysts believe that the shared objective of Russia and China is not to expand the conflict, but to ensure that Iran remains capable of defending itself and rebuilding its strength after every confrontation. From this perspective, the two countries do not view the ceasefire as the end of the crisis, but as a new phase in which Iran’s military capabilities are rebuilt in preparation for future confrontations.
