The third straw poll conducted by the Security Council to select the next Secretary-General of the United Nations will likely be interpreted as a numbers-driven contest. Yet the core issue concerns the nature of the position itself at a time when the international system is becoming increasingly fragmented and confidence in multilateral institutions is declining.
For Arab countries, this is not merely an institutional choice. Conflicts and reconstruction, food and energy security, debt pressures, and economic diversification efforts all require a united bloc capable of linking diplomacy with economic action.
The candidates bring complementary strengths. Michelle Bachelet served twice as President of Chile and also led UN Women and the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights. Rafael Grossi has managed highly sensitive nuclear diplomacy issues as Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett combines her experience as Guyana’s foreign minister with a deep understanding of the challenges facing countries most vulnerable to climate change.
María Fernanda Espinosa served as President of the United Nations General Assembly, while Macky Sall led both Senegal and the African Union. Olara Otunnu worked extensively on issues affecting children impacted by war, and Yvonne Aki-Sawyerr brings broad diplomatic experience. Rebeca Grynspan’s career spans national government, regional cooperation, and the United Nations system, from serving as Vice President of Costa Rica to working with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the Ibero-American General Secretariat, and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
These qualifications should be assessed in light of the challenges facing whoever succeeds Antonio Guterres.
The first challenge is geopolitical paralysis. While the Secretary-General cannot compel major powers to reach agreement, he or she can keep channels of communication open, propose workable arrangements, and prevent disagreements from shutting down all avenues of cooperation.
Grossi’s experience dealing with nuclear facilities that are under danger demonstrates the importance of credibility and engagement with conflicting parties. Otunnu’s work underscores the need to keep civilian protection at the center of strategic discussions.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative, brokered by the United Nations and Türkiye, offers another example of effective mediation. Grynspan’s role linked negotiations involving Russia and Ukraine with maritime trade, fertilizer supplies, and food security. The importance of this experience lies in recognizing that a technical economic arrangement can enable limited cooperation during wartime and generate humanitarian benefits beyond the immediate conflict zone.
The second challenge is economic insecurity. Debt burdens limit governments’ ability to provide services, while food and energy shocks increase social pressures. Climate vulnerability, inequality, and difficulties accessing financing further deepen the perception that the international system does not serve all countries equally.
Rodrigues-Birkett’s positions highlight the vulnerability of small states. Sall has consistently voiced Africa’s development priorities, while Bachelet’s record illustrates the connection between social protection and institutional legitimacy.
Grynspan’s experience at UNDP and UNCTAD links domestic realities with the international structures governing debt, investment, trade, and development finance. The next Secretary-General must therefore understand both intergovernmental negotiations and the economic pressures that shape state behavior.
The third challenge lies within the United Nations itself. The organization faces financial constraints, expanded mandates, and declining confidence in its ability to deliver results. Espinosa’s leadership of the General Assembly provides insight into institutional reform, while Grynspan’s leadership of the Ibero-American General Secretariat and UNCTAD demonstrates experience in balancing institutional ambitions with political and financial constraints.
Reform cannot be reduced to reorganizing departments. It requires clearer priorities, genuine accountability, and stronger partnerships with regional organizations, development institutions, civil society, and the private sector. The next Secretary-General must know the UN system well enough to reform it effectively.
Selecting the first woman to serve as UN Secretary-General would give the process historic significance. The strongest outcome, however, would be one that combines this milestone with proven executive and diplomatic competence.
Straw polls reveal levels of support, but they do not measure all the qualifications required for the position. The Security Council should seek a candidate who has exercised responsibility within a national government, understood development challenges from within the United Nations, built consensus among politically diverse states, and managed an international institution under financial and geopolitical pressure.
What is needed is a leader who can move seamlessly between diplomacy and economics, between governments and markets, and between immediate crises and their structural causes.
No candidate can embody all these qualifications perfectly. Yet the strongest candidate will be the one whose career demonstrates a proven ability to connect these different worlds and translate the principles of multilateralism into tangible results.
