The Ramadan truce between Hamas and Israel that we had been promised does not seem forthcoming. In fact, Benjamin Netanyahu and Yahya al-Sinwar could be dragging the region in general, and their countries in particular, to a dangerous place, as they are accounting only for their own personal fates.
Netanyahu is complicit, with his fanatical racist right-wing coalition allies, in the push to annex Palestinian territory, expel Palestinians from Gaza, and install Jewish settlers there. To that end, he has rejected every proposal, whatever the terms, that gives rise to a Palestinian state, and he has insisted that Israel will make an incursion into Rafah and liquidate what remains of Hamas and its leadership.
For his part, Sinwar has met this approach by doubling down and pledging to keep resisting, even if that means the destruction of what remains of Gaza.
Recent national polls show that about 4 out of every 5 Israelis hold Netanyahu primarily responsible for the lapses that led to the October 7 attack and 3 out of every 4 Israelis want him to resign. He also has to contend with political opposition within and without the war cabinet, as many officials and politicians also hold him personally responsible for the government's astonishing incompetence, its slow decision-making, its poor coordination in the management of this war, and its blunders in managing relations with Israel's most important ally, the United States, which it has blatantly defied.
Netanyahu's approach to managing the conflict reflects his narcissistic, manipulative and shortsighted character, as well as his indifference to the fate of his country, its interests, and its future. This is evident in the many risky gambles he has taken over the years. Indeed, he has allegedly refused to approve operations to eliminate the Hamas leadership proposed by the Shin Bet (Shabak) six times over the past 12 years. No one summed up Netanyahu's approach better than President Joe Biden, who said the former "does more harm to Israel than good."
In the opposite corner, Sinwar knows he has lost the leadership, the future of the movement as it currently exists, and his control over the people of Gaza. He has also probably lost public support because of the repercussions of his misadventures. Sinwar has one final task: to finish what he had started with Al-Aqsa Flood, which was partly an effort to sabotage the peace process in the region, and to deny the attack's destructive ramifications.
Continuing the resistance into Ramadan and even beyond, as Sinwar might be planning to do, could leave Israel at odds with the entire world, especially its American allies, as well as potentially inflaming the West Bank, including Jerusalem, and it could even precipitate a third intifada that includes Arab Israelis. Moreover, Egyptian and Jordanian relations with Israel could deteriorate, threatening the peace agreements Israel had concluded with them and Israeli-Arab relations more broadly, especially with the countries that have normalized relations with Israel.
It's a grim scenario. If it were to materialize, it would bring about only more death and destruction, destabilize the region's stability and security, inflame religious conflict, and hinder development and modernization. The primary and ultimate beneficiary would be Iran and its regional policies. These policies undermine everything the Biden administration has offered to Netanyahu to bring about a new regional order.
This new order would paralyze Hamas and leave it unable to threaten Israel or rule Gaza after the war, as well as place the territories in the hands of a reformed Palestinian Authority supported by Arab countries within the framework of a process that ultimately allows Israel to live in security alongside a viable Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
The problem, for both Sinwar and Netanyahu, is that they are at an impasse from which they cannot retreat. Palestinian, Arab, and international actors have created a wall blocking Sinwar’s path.
As for Netanyahu, if he yields to Washington, he risks losing the support of the hard right, which would bring down his government and be the end of his political life. It would even mean heading straight to jail. If he continues to reject Biden's approach, he risks sinking Israel deeper into the quicksand of Gaza, igniting a third intifada in the West Bank, and another war with Hezbollah.
Moreover, taking this route could severely damage relations with the United States, which Israel depends on for ammunition, financial support, and crucial diplomatic backing. It could also jeopardize all of Israel’s Arab relations, old and new. Any one of these outcomes would be terrible for Israel, and together, they would constitute an existential disaster for Israel.
If Netanyahu proceeds to storm Rafah (or even if he continues at the same pace of killing that he has maintained over the past months, or broadens the war with Hezbollah), and Sinwar insists on futile and shortsighted resistance, they would be breathing new life into the October 7 operation together, in what could be called "Al-Aqsa Flood 2," and this time, it would be signed by both Sinwar and Netanyahu.
