Don’t Leave Lebanon Out of The Post-Gaza Negotiations!

Journalists traveling with US Presidential Envoy Amos Hochstein have reported that he did not want to come to Beirut during his recent trip to the region. He felt certain that nothing new would come of the visit, but senior White House and State Department advisers told him that he should make a brief stop to Lebanon nonetheless. They did not argue that he could make any progress on bringing the clashes in southern Lebanon to an end. Rather, they maintained that it was important to keep lines of communication open, contain the conflict within its current parameters until the Gaza war ends, and sit at the negotiating table to redraw the region and conclude an agreement among influential states on how to distribute influence.
A Lebanese friend of the US Envoy has said that the latter is convinced Lebanon will inevitably be left out of these negotiations, which will inevitably be held sooner or later and could see influential countries decide the country's fate and future on behalf of its people, because Hezbollah is linking the clashes with Israel to the war in Gaza and disrupting the presidential elections, along with other political process.
During his recent visit to Lebanon, Hochstein made Hezbollah an offer through Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri. He suggested that the party act as a mediator in talks with Hamas and push the Palestinian group to accept US President Joe Biden's ceasefire proposal; in return, the United States would pressure the Israeli military to avoid escalation in Lebanon. Berri rejected the offer, despite the fact that it would mean the US implicitly recognizing Hezbollah. Berri is very well aware that this decision ultimately lies with Iran, and that Tehran would necessarily be involved in any mediation efforts with Hamas.
Berri told Hochstein that if there is anyone the United States should pressure, it is Israel, which should be compelled to end its operations, and that in this event, there would be no need for mediation with Hamas. In turn, Hochstein replied that this was the response he had expected and that he regrets the escalation to come, which will not be in Lebanon's interest.
As soon as the US envoy's plane took off from Beirut Airport, Israeli drones bombed the outskirts of Tyre, Aita al-Shaab, and Deir Mimas, leaving several casualties and injuries and burning agricultural land. Citizens in the South cried out for help to extinguish fires that broke out in olive groves that had been planted centuries ago. Hezbollah retaliated to Israel’s brutality by leaking a video, allegedly taken by its Hudhud drone, depicting the port of Haifa and other areas identified as critical military centers, which media outlets tied to the party claimed are highly sensitive targets.
In the eulogy that Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah gave during a recent speech for a senior Hezbollah commander (Abu Talib), who had been assassinated by Israel along with his entourage in the southern town of Jwaya, he claimed that “the footage captured by the Hudhud depicts targets with party's range." He also threatened Cyprus, stressing that it would face dire consequences if it facilitated any hostile Israeli action against Lebanon.
Cyprus and the European Union condemned his threat, aggravating Lebanon's isolation on the global stage as it is undergoing the most severe economic and financial crisis in its history. This is a time for openness and cooperation with the world, not seclusion, but Nasrallah, with this outburst, has taken another step toward pariah status.
It is no longer a secret that Lebanon has become an Iranian playground. The latter can do what it likes, exploiting its free reign to score points against the United States. It is fine if the Lebanese pay the price with their lives, land, and money, or if this small country is isolated from the international community; what matters is Iran's interests.
But what if a war breaks out? Of course, the losses would be catastrophic, especially since the country is already in a perilous situation financially. Indeed, a recent report published by the Policy Initiative, a research center based in Beirut, warned that, although its economy's GDP has shrunk to $16 billion, a war would cost Lebanon about $7.7 billion annually.
Hezbollah’s escalation is pushing Lebanon to the brink of what could be a broader conflict that would have devastating consequences for Lebanon and the entire region. Israel knows that it has a duty to defend its people, but the question remains: who would defend the people of Lebanon?
As for Hochstein and his efforts, the Israeli press has reported that he seems "more worried" about the prospect that the daily exchanges could lead to a full-fledged war that would lead to enormous destruction on both sides of the border. Speaking in Beirut, he said, “The conflict... between Israel and Hezbollah has gone on for long enough,” adding that “it’s in everyone’s interest to resolve it quickly and diplomatically- that is both achievable and urgent.”
Thus, intensive diplomatic efforts could apply enough pressure on Hezbollah to agree to a ceasefire, especially if the fighting in Gaza ends. However, South Lebanon will only know peace when Hezbollah and its Iranian backers are out of the country.