Anyone who follows social networks and watches some of the Arab media will notice an increase in “shouting,” “a party of insults,” and accusations of disloyalty, as well as an unprecedented decline in the language of dialogue. So why all this?
The story is clear, but it requires concentration and a cold reading of the events, from Washington to Tehran, from the southern suburb of Beirut to Gaza, from Sanaa to Damascus, passing through Ankara, and even Baghdad.
All the events that concern us now are in a real stage of labor, and will have many repercussions. We begin with Washington. Will President Biden maintain his presidential candidacy or will he withdraw? If he quits, who will succeed him?
What will happen to the Gaza truce if Biden withdraws, or if the Democrats suffer a split? Will Netanyahu respond to American pressure now, or will he wait for the next candidate, or for Biden’s fate, especially with the increasing lapses of the US president?
Biden himself, according to David Ignatius’s column in The Washington Post, may take advantage of the truce, if it occurs, to declare a political victory in achieving peace and withdraw from the presidential race. He may also use it as a starting point to cling to the candidacy.
What about the truce itself? The information published by the same writer, in his article, points to Israeli-Hamas indicators that both parties are ready to abandon Gaza: Israel withdraws, and Hamas no longer rules. This requires a “scenario” in which Hamas announces an illusionary victory.
The writer reports that the Lebanese government negotiated, through Nabih Berri, a “framework” for the aftermath of the Gaza truce, for Hezbollah to withdraw north from the border near the Litani. This needs some preparation by Hezbollah, to create a “scenario” that suggests the alleged victory as well!
All of this will preoccupy Iran, which is looking for a role in the negotiations, in addition to the consequences of losing two fronts through Hamas and Hezbollah, which means that Netanyahu will celebrate a political victory he planned, and will devote himself to the Iranian front, especially if Trump wins the elections.
Therefore, Iran is now seeking to complete the silent negotiations with the United States in Oman. There are no US leaks, no clear Iranian talk about them, and the details of those negotiations are lost amid a torrent of “party of insults” and accusations of betrayal.
The Iran crisis does not end there. It must assess the repercussions of Houthi actions, especially after the decision of the Central Bank of Yemen, and the rhetorical escalation. This is a challenge to the Beijing agreement between Riyadh and Tehran. The saying, “A fool can throw a stone in a pond that 100 wise men cannot get,” applies perfectly to the Houthis.
Moreover, a “party of madness” is hitting the Muslim Brotherhood. They are the worst, as they do not hesitate to lie and falsify facts. The reason is their successive losses everywhere, mostly importantly in Türkiye, which has been a breeding ground for them, in all areas.
All of this is happening, while the real successful model lies in the Gulf countries that have chosen to launch reforms, build nations and strengthen their cohesion from within. Those are led by Saudi Arabia, the pioneer of this true revolution in the region.
Accordingly, the shouting and the party of insults escalate, in an attempt to create a narrative that allows some to claim non-existent and imaginary victories, in order to mislead the scene of great devastation left by the adventures.
