Regardless of who wins the US presidential election after President Joe Biden's exit from the race, an entirely new era will begin once it ends. Despite their divergent backgrounds, both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, for different reasons, are atypical candidates. Harris is far more representative of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party than Biden, while Trump has precipitated a major shift in the trajectory of the Republican Party, which has veered towards political and moral conservatism and American ultranationalism.
Since the outcome of this election will shape an array of global issues, it highlights a growing problem that has marked American democracy since the mid-20th century. Indeed, it is the most democratic American election domestically and the least democratic one for the rest of the planet, as around 250 million Americans alone will decide who becomes the country’s next president, who, besides being the president of the United States and the American people, is also the president of the entire world.
Accordingly, we should ask if the priority is to reach an identitarian milestone through the election of the first woman president of mixed African and Asian heritage, or if the priority is electing someone with the competence to lead the world in addressing global political, security, and economic challenges.
There is no simple answer to this question, especially since all politics is ultimately local politics. Significant matters of dispute separate the two candidates, be it questions around gender, race, minorities, abortion, or immigration. However, local American politics has never been this sharply disconnected from pressing and volatile global strategic political questions.
Let us take a moment to consider China’s rising influence in Asia, the multiple challenges Russia poses to Europe’s security and economy, and the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East that are directly fueled by Iran and its militias. In this world - which saw the first joint Russian-Chinese maneuver on the borders of Alaska last week, and where international actors (not just the Iranians) speak of the progress Iran has made on its nuclear program and the Houthi militias recently struck Tel Aviv using a drone - the cultural wars are at the forefront in the US. The emphasis is on Harris’s motherhood, her race, or the pronunciation of her name - they are the key “issues” that will decide who becomes president!
There is no doubt that Kamala Harris's candidacy is rooted in the American dream and its promise of continuous progress on social justice and inclusivity. After having become the first woman vice president of African and Asian descent, Harris is now the Democratic Party's presidential nominee, a historic political achievement for the US. However, the fear is that this milestone in terms of social justice and equality will come at the expense of strong and balanced political leadership that recognizes the challenges facing the world and that is determined to address them effectively to safeguard international security and stability.
The 2024 presidential election, then, is not merely a contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. It is a pivotal juncture that will shape the global order at a time as the world faces a variety of challenges presented by actors that are extorting it and draining its energy. In the Middle East, we should be concerned that Harris's candidacy, despite its historical significance and promises of progress, might not rise to the pressing economic and geopolitical challenges of the era.
This excessive emphasis on identity politics comes at a time when we are seeing increasing signs of fragmentation within American society and a growing sense that Americans are alienated from one another. This sharp polarization undermines domestic American unity and the next administration's ability to provide the leverage the political and institutional capital needed to address global challenges.
In this sense, overemphasizing identity politics could well pose a significant threat to the role of the United States on the world stage and to its global alliances. It risks diverting attention away from urgent global challenges that have direct repercussions on the United States’ security and its economic interests. Moreover, this comes at a time when competitors like China and Russia are continuing to consolidate their influence and challenge Washington's hegemony.
Harris claims that she represents the future, while Trump embodies the past. However, we can see the future that the Democratic candidate is promising before us. Under the Democrats’ leadership, during Barack Obama's two terms and Joe Biden’s presidency, the United States’ international leadership has declined. This decline has opened the door to audacious ventures by players like China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela, North Korea, and others who have sought to shift the balance of power in ways that sharpen polarization and weaken stability.
There is no indication that Harris would be any better, especially since she will be keen on faithfully representing the progressive Democratic wave that could carry her to the White House, which will have serious implications for the split between US policy priorities and the political priorities of the rest of the world.
