Iran… The Search for a Mediator

Tehran is nervous both regionally and internationally. Its dilemma deepens as its options narrow and its friends disappear, whether deliberately or out of self-interest.
It has few friends, as nations are driven by interests, not friendship or ideology. These friends, burdened by an array of concerns and growing anxieties, are opting for temporary settlements here, compromises there, or solutions that cut their losses. We saw exactly that when its supposed ally, Moscow, responded to the first signal it received from Washington, eagerly heading to neighboring Riyadh for talks.
Now, Tehran watches the events in Riyadh as though it, too, might ask for the Kingdom’s mediation, especially after Russia, presumed to be among its closest allies, knocked on Riyadh’s door for mediation and now seems on track to succeed in reaching a deal with Washington, despite its the burdens it has placed on Washington’s historical allies across the European side of the Atlantic. If this mediation succeeds, Tehran will make two realizations: First, it must follow Moscow’s lead in seeking mediation and turn to Riyadh- a neighbor that consistently pursues enduring regional and global stability and has become a hub for bringing adversaries and disputing parties together. The second realization is that Tehran must be increasingly wary of Moscow. Indeed, the latter is eagerly pursuing engagement with US President Donald Trump’s administration, which may grant Russia some of the concessions it has been seeking since the outbreak of the Ukraine war.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov arrived in Tehran offering reassurances about their strategic partnership, but they may not meet Iran’s expectations. Indeed, his visit does little to dispel its growing concerns over shifting Moscow’s alliances and interests. Tehran is keen to avoid standing alone against a US administration whose terms would amount to nothing less than outright confrontation. Caught between two bitter choices, Tehran is searching for a difficult way out or a mediation capable of securing at least some of what it wants.
However, what Tehran seeks from a mediator or mediation cannot be achieved with President Trump’s administration, as its demands far exceed Iran’s expectations. No regional or international actor is willing to stand by its side or offer support, and the global sensitivity to the notion of “support” has become a form of punishment for Iran. This sensitivity weighs heavily on Tehran, making missteps in negotiations with Washington particularly costly.
Three rounds of European-Iranian negotiations over several months have yielded no results, as the gap between the two sides continues to widen and sharpen the challenge. The Europeans are unwilling to tolerate Iran’s acquisition of nuclear or strategic capabilities, while Washington demands a new agreement that leave no room for risk or uncertainty.
Meanwhile, Moscow’s primary concern remains Ukraine, and it is operating within a limited American window. Either Trump succeeds in imposing his vision of a solution on his European allies, or he succumbs to pressure from the establishment in Washington, which remains committed to transatlantic partnerships. The establishment could disrupt his plans with Moscow or even undermine his presidency. They could eventually allow him to make some gains in Iran but force him to concede on Ukraine.
Building trust with Trump is difficult, and Iran is now in an unprecedented position. Its bargaining chips are either out of service or nearly annihilated. Confidence in Russia remains tenuous, after centuries of hesitation to bet on Moscow or rely on its commitment.
Meanwhile, Riyadh continues to loom, as it has successfully turned its territory into a diplomatic space that fosters negotiations. It has taken on the role that European capitals had played for over a century. Now, instead of Middle Eastern leaders heading to Europe for reconciliation talks, it is European and global leaders who come to Riyadh seeking its mediation. Will Tehran take note?