The Coordination Framework’s nomination of former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to head the government has exposed a major crisis of Shiite politics in Iraq. This crisis cannot be reduced to a struggle for political power, influence, or wealth. Rather, it reflects a deeper conflict that reflects tensions engendered by a generational transition that will shape the nature and trajectory of Shiite politics.
It is clear that Maliki represents the most acceptable choice of the founding generation of the 2003 regime, especially what could be called the “traditional Shiite right”: the ideological elites with clear roots, foremost among them the Dawa Party, the Badr Organization, and what remains of the Supreme Islamic Council.
Notably, Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani has also voiced support for Maliki, reflecting a convergence of two traditionalist forces. Both the Shiite and Kurdish right have had to reconfigure their priorities to adapt to the major shifts that followed the attack of October 7, 2023. They have gone from merely managing balance to recalibrating the center of decision-making and safeguarding the stability of the political system.
For Shiite political elites, Maliki represents the peak of the right’s ascent. Its cohesive ideology and stable hierarchy hold in moments of comprehensive apprehension, and the efforts and ideas intersect with the Shiite community’s social and spiritual centers of power. This brand of politics believes this phase calls for returning to the formula that underpinned the 2003 regime, and for preventing a new generation from occupying the center of political power.
As for the new generation, it includes traditional Shiite forces calling for the reconfiguration of political power under the slogan of “generational displacement.” That is, it represents the forces calling for the replacement of the founding leaders without changing the foundations of the political system.
Advocates of generational displacement within Shiite politics wield tangible influence. At times, this influence is disproportionate to their parliamentary or governmental representation, as they owe much of their influence to familial legacies and their spiritual and political weight. They also face competition from new, non-traditional forces that have emerged from within the same system, were formed inside it, and have begun to compete for the inheritance of the founding generation or filling the vacuum it leaves behind.
These forces of the new generation openly reject Maliki and have presented contradictory arguments in their campaign to sideline him: American opposition to Iranian non-intervention, alarm about the Popular Mobilization Forces and their role, inter-sectarian tensions, to the apprehensions of neighboring states.
Meanwhile, Maliki is seeking to reformulate his discourse and take it in a more conciliatory direction, sending serious messages affirming the need for a state monopoly on arms and for solidifying state authority. Nonetheless, his opponents have not forgotten his past: Operation Charge of the Knights against Mahdi Army militants and leaks attributed to him in which he described some factions of the PMF as a “nation of cowards.”
This generational rift is larger than a tug-of-war within the Coordination Framework. It touches on the unity - ideological and militant - of the Shiite political coalition, raising the specter of intra-Shiite conflict over the nature of the system and legitimacy. What is at stake is a hybrid or composite mix between those who rely on the legitimacy of representation, arms, and identity, and those who call for a transition toward the legitimacy of the state and its institutions.
Accordingly, some parties nominating Maliki and others rejecting him cannot be understood as another round of the power struggle. It has become a clash of two generations that can no longer be contained, as it comes at a moment of domestic and external recalibration as the regional order is being reshaped. This state of affairs will compel both generations to take a different approach to reproducing the establishment.
