History may repeat itself. We don't forget the iconic scene of Iranian Minister Javad Zarif standing on the balcony of the Palais Coburg Hotel in Vienna eleven years ago, waving to journalists with a big joyful smile after signing the comprehensive agreement.
It was a spectacular Iranian victory, signed by President Obama. All of Europe supported it, and China and Russia were witnesses.
Vienna's joy was short-lived as the agreement was quickly torn up at the White House. Relations became strained, ports were closed, oil tankers were pursued, and Iran was besieged.
The "Vance-Qalibaf" agreement signed by Trump is preliminary, with a deadline of no less than two months to reach a final detailed agreement. Trump wants a propaganda victory, deliberately signing it at the Palace of Versailles, echoing the treaty that ended World War I. However, Versailles was also a symbol of a treaty of sin; it caused the more destructive World War II.
Negotiator Qalibaf today represented negotiator Zarif of yesterday, extremely pleased with the victory over Trump's negotiating team, led by Vice President JD Vance and his advisors Jared Kushner and Witkoff.
In the chaos and ambiguity surrounding the framework agreement, I believe the most important question is not about opening the Strait of Hormuz, or collecting Iran's frozen billions, or supporting Iran with three hundred billion, but about its continuity and the possibility of its collapse.
Will it overcome the two-month hurdle and fulfill everything the Iranian team requested and promised? In my opinion, the issue is bigger than returning the $24 billion, which are originally frozen Iranian funds, and more important than financing Iran's economic reconstruction. The geopolitical situation that the new agreement will create threatens all the outcomes post-October 7, 2023, which led to Iran's weakening.
The American agreement rehabilitates Tehran's regime as a regional power.
Vance's theory is that the Iranian regime will discover through the granted economic rescue Marshall Plan that peace is its best option. Unfortunately, it echoes what former President Obama said after signing the comprehensive agreement. In April 2015, he stated that the agreement "will strengthen the more moderate forces within Iran."
Obama's theory was quickly proven wrong as the Iranian regime intensified its crackdown on its citizens, benefiting from its political victory and new funds, and the "Quds Force" and Qassem Soleimani encroached beyond its borders, with militias flocking to Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and other places.
Most of the funds Tehran will acquire in the current and coming weeks are likely to go primarily towards strengthening the military regime's position, not to support living conditions or the Iranian economy. The Iranian leadership fears the possibility of a return to war against it, and its political doctrine considers Iran a military power, harnessing all its resources for this strategy.
Tehran's new leadership will need enormous sums to rehabilitate its defensive and offensive capabilities, utilizing the frozen funds and significant oil sales at high prices it will obtain under the agreement.
Meanwhile, Israel watches the scene with anger, anxiety, and vigilance. It is unlikely to accept Iran's return as a major regional power threatening it, especially after having sought to undermine it. Therefore, it will seek to pressure Trump to correct the course of negotiations.
The framework agreement will not only face objections from Israel, and partly the Gulf, but also skepticism from within the Trump administration.
After the quick, angry impressions, let's read the scene objectively. Despite its many drawbacks, the positive aspect of the preliminary agreement is that it made it easier for both parties to back away from fighting, which would have been difficult given domestic and international public opinion. It also offers both sides an opportunity to return and negotiate the details. There are many pitfalls that the agreement did not address and will be points of concern later, and negotiators may succeed in restricting Iran's activities and military capabilities.
Despite his reprimands and insults to Netanyahu, Trump cannot ignore him or Israeli public opinion... he needs American Jewish support. Trump also cannot ignore the Republican Party hawks; they are his inner circle and protect his back in Congressional conflicts. All of them are satisfied with the nuclear agreement, but some will oppose giving Iran free rein in the region.
The final conclusion is that lifting sanctions and allowing it to sell oil will provide it with about $200 billion annually, along with a financial fund for its reconstruction, which will ultimately grant it about half a trillion dollars. This will make Iran a greater monster than it was before.
It is likely that Netanyahu will return to lead the military scene in the region if subsequent negotiations fail to change Iran's policy.
