Last Thursday, the British magazine “The New World” was published with a front cover featuring an image of Russian President Vladimir Putin. He was depicted wearing a military uniform and lying in state in a coffin draped in red velvet cloth, beneath which a caption read in a large font: "After Putin."
The image is not a casual visual choice, but a deliberate recreation of a famous historical scene that occurred more than 75 years ago: the passing of Soviet leader Joseph Stalin, utilizing the exact same posture and composition. The implication is clear and self-evident: another Stalin is falling, and just as Russia transformed after breaking free from Stalin's grip, it will undergo a similar transformation after Putin.
To an observer, the cover image may appear closer to wishful thinking than analysis. However, in light of what data from the Ukrainian battlefronts reveals regarding its military, political, and economic repercussions, it is not devoid of a degree of political realism.
What no rational observers dispute is that, in recent months, the Russian president appears to be in an uncomfortable position on both the political and military fronts. This comes as a result of escalating deep Ukrainian drone strikes targeting oil refineries inside Russian territory, which raises serious questions about potential scenarios in post-war Russia.
“The New World” emerged ten years ago, immediately following the Brexit referendum, and was published weekly in a newspaper format under the name “The New European”. On its tenth anniversary, the magazine changed its name and format to become “The New World”, while its political stance remained unchanged: it represents the moderate current within the British left, which supported Britain remaining in the European Union, advocates for its return, and strongly supports Ukraine in its war against Russia.
Is the situation in Russia truly that dire? British media reports indicate that military conditions along the combat fronts are causing concern within the Kremlin; Russian forces are advancing with noticeable slowness and at a heavy cost in both lives and equipment. “The Economist” reported that Russian forces advanced only 13 kilometers over the past month.
Furthermore, repeated airstrikes by the Ukrainian drone fleet on oil refineries and other vital facilities across various Russian cities have disrupted the Kremlin's calculations, a fact that President Putin himself recently and explicitly acknowledged. According to the reports, these Ukrainian strikes have inflicted damage on Russian supply lines across various fronts and have had an economic impact, resulting in a slowdown in growth and forcing Moscow to adopt austerity policies and raise the value-added tax to bridge the budget gap.
Despite this, the end of President Putin's long era does not appear imminent based on realistic data. Available reports indicate that oil and gas revenues still cover approximately 22 percent of the Russian federal budget, a percentage sufficient to keep the war machine running despite the pressure. On the ground, Russian forces do not appear to be on the verge of a decisive military defeat. While the unprecedented accumulation of political, economic, and military signs of exhaustion since the outbreak of the full-scale invasion may worry Putin, it does not necessarily lead to the conclusion that his end is near.
In essence, President Putin's political and military situation does not differ much from that of his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who also faces severe pressures and challenges. The difference is that Zelenskyy's morale has recently risen significantly as a result of the field achievements of the Ukrainian drone fleet against the Russian army, facilities, and oil ports, in addition to a noticeable improvement in his relationship with the US administration.
The cover of “The New World” is not merely a passing visual provocation, but is, in my view, closest to an optimistic political message, reflecting a conviction that the end of President Putin's era is closer than it appears. For this reason, facts on the ground dictate caution in interpretation: the accumulated exhaustion in Moscow is real and tangible, and is not new for a country that has been waging a war for five years, but it has not yet reached the point of collapse implied by the image of the coffin on the magazine's cover.
President Putin's grip on Russia has not yet weakened, and his party is expected to win the upcoming elections in September, albeit with a lower percentage of votes than before (50 percent) according to reports. Between the magazine's optimism and the complex reality on the ground, the gap remains.
