The future of the Middle East now appears closely tied to two elections scheduled only days apart: the Israeli elections on October 27, 2026, the first to complete a full electoral cycle since 1988, and the first to be held after the October 7, 2023 attack and the subsequent wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran.
The second is the US midterm election, set for November 3, which will determine all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate. As always, it will take place on the Tuesday following the first Monday in November.
Why are these two elections jointly important for the Middle East? It is a highly legitimate question.
The first question is: Where is Israel headed?
Current indicators suggest that no single party is capable of winning an outright majority. Israel's proportional representation system requires a coalition to secure 61 of the Knesset's 120 seats in order to form a government. Current polls give the anti-Netanyahu bloc 59 seats, Netanyahu's camp 51 seats, and Arab parties 10 seats, meaning that no side currently holds the necessary majority.
The real divisions are not merely personal. They are profound and strategic. Should the war continue along its current course, or should ceasefire and reconstruction agreements be pursued? What about mandatory military service for the ultra-Orthodox Haredi community and its implications for social cohesion inside Israel?
How should judicial reform be handled while safeguarding the judiciary's full independence from political interference? And how should Israel address the increasingly contentious issues of the West Bank and settlement expansion?
These are just some of the key challenges that any new Israeli government will have to confront.
In addition, there is the question of how Israel will manage relations with its regional neighbors.
The second question is: Where is America headed?
The answer will be central to understanding many of the region's future developments. Congress directly influences three issues that affect the Middle East: the scale of military aid to Israel and Ukraine, sanctions on Iran, and US policy toward the Gulf states.
Historically, the party in power tends to lose significant seats in midterm elections. If the White House loses control of the House of Representatives, passing major foreign policy initiatives and international agreements will become considerably more difficult.
In Israel, one possible scenario is continuity: the current governing coalition remains in power while Republicans retain control of Congress. This would likely mean increased pressure on Iran, a freeze on the Gaza file, and faster progress on economic corridor projects linking India, the Middle East, and Europe.
What about a scenario of change? A centrist government in Israel coupled with Democratic control of the House of Representatives could create greater opportunities for a long-term ceasefire in Gaza, a renewed focus, at least on paper, on a two-state solution, and a return to nuclear negotiations with Iran. However, stricter domestic political constraints in the United States could make all of these objectives largely theoretical.
The coming month is therefore expected to be a period of intense caution. No major player is likely to take far-reaching decisions before knowing who will govern in Tel Aviv after October 27. In Washington, all eyes will be on who emerges dominant after November 3.
The region is waiting to see the results. Yet many are equally concerned about the economic costs of this prolonged uncertainty, a matter of profound importance and potential consequence.
