What went on in Benjamin Netanyahu’s head on his flight back from the United States? The conclusions he reached in the US will impact the entire region, including Lebanon and Gaza. Did he conclude that he mended his ties with the US after holding talks with Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump despite some reservations?
Does Netanyahu believe that he received the green light to continue the wars despite some reservations? Does he believe that the months that separate us from the election of a new American president are an opportunity to finish the job in Gaza? Does he think that what took place in Majdal Shams in the occupied Golan gives him the opportunity to pursue a similar job on the Lebanese front?
The members of Congress applauded the Israeli visitor who now holds the record in the number of times he has addressed them. However, the number of vacant seats was obvious. Harris, who is busy with her presidential campaign, didn’t find it necessary to attend and listen to Netanyahu’s speech.
Did the visitor sense that America may have changed, even just a little bit? Did he sense that what had taken place in the streets and at university campuses was not a passing event and that the days of America’s absolute support are over?
It’s hard to guess what went on in Netanyahu’s head. There are fears that the strike on Majdal Shams was a prime opportunity – that may not happen again – to replicate the scenes in Gaza in Lebanon, or at least on the Lebanese border with Israel. These are the fears of people who believe it is the opportunity to wage the battle of returning 100,000 Israelis to the settlements and villages they evacuated due to the war Hezbollah launched in wake of the Al-Aqsa Flood operation.
Netanyahu is aware that the time of lightning wars is completely over. Israel is no longer capable of declaring an end of a war through a mighty deadly strike. The type of combatants has changed and so has the nature of wars. Netanyahu also knows that the Lebanese front has been and continues to be more dangerous than the Gaza front. He knows that Hezbollah boasts a much larger arsenal than Hamas.
He also knows that an attack on Hezbollah brings Israel closer to war with Iran itself. He knows that Tehran would not tolerate the same assault that Israel waged on Hamas be launched against Hezbollah. He knows that the frontlines for war with Hezbollah stretch from southern Lebanon to Tehran. He knows that the involvement of maps that have supported Hamas during the Gaza war will double when it comes to Hezbollah.
The Lebanese people have in recent months heard alarming Israeli threats. Some have confirmed Israel’s ability to replicate the horrors in Gaza in Beirut. Some have spoken of the Israeli army’s ability to return Lebanon to the stone age. The threats - with a few exceptions - have not been translated into actions that went beyond the rules of engagement. Washington has succeeded in making Israel commit to refraining from sparking a broad regional war.
The Majdal Shams strike has prompted the extremists in Netanyahu’s government to demand that the prime minister wage an all-out war against Lebanon. They have even demanded that Beirut be razed to the ground. The Israelis displaced from the north accused Netanyahu of disregarding their plight. Others spoke of Israel becoming an unsafe country, with many of its residents seeking other countries for security in a sign of reverse migration.
Should it happen, a war on Lebanon will not be a walk in the park for Israel. Hezbollah has in recent months provided an example of its arsenal that is much different than what it possessed in the 2006 war. In return, Israel has demonstrated its technological superiority by killing hundreds of Hezbollah fighters. It may not be a cakewalk for Israel, but it will be catastrophic for Lebanon.
Lebanon is weak on all levels. Its institutions are crumbling. Its people have grown accustomed to the vacuum in the presidency. The parliament is almost crippled, and the caretaker government is paralyzed. The Lebanese people are divided over numerous issues, including the war between Hezbollah and Israel, as they sink deeper in poverty and are lured more and more to immigrate.
The Lebanese state is no longer a serious player, neither in the South nor in Beirut. A large segment of the people believe that Lebanon has been forced to take on a regional role that is beyond its means. It has been incapable in recent months in applying the same de-escalation policy that Syria succeeded in implementing to avoid a wider war. Many believe that if the war on Gaza is greater than Gaza, then any wider war on Lebanon will be much greater than Lebanon.
What went on in Netanyahu’s head when he returned to Israel yesterday? Will he order a strike that would spark a major, yet limited, fire the way he did with the Houthis? Or does he believe that Israel cannot coexist with Hezbollah’s arsenal by its border? The calls to act against Lebanon are not limited to his camp, but they have risen from the opposition as well.
The coming days will prove whether the US, which is lost between Harris and Trump, is still capable of upholding its decision to prevent a regional war from erupting. They will prove whether it can speed up an end to the war in Gaza in the hopes that it would end the wars that have emerged in several maps.
Dousing the flames demands a complicated tango between the US and Iran. Is the latter prepared to help in putting out the fires? By what means and at what price?
