The confusion that has plagued British Conservative governments since 2016, the year of the Brexit referendum, has not abated. In fact, it continues even after a Labor government came to power. A quick glance at media reports offers a rather bleak picture of the situation: the ongoing crisis of illegal migration, overcrowded prisons, rail strikes, rising food prices, and the persistent housing crisis dominate headlines.
This week, MPs returned to Westminster after the summer recess. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and his family were forced to skip their holiday due to violent unrest in several British cities. These riots were incited by the far-right following a horrific incident involving a teenager of Rwandan descent, which resulted in the tragic killing of three young girls at a kindergarten and the injury of eight others.
The return of MPs coincides with the Conservative Party’s leadership election. Six candidates, all former ministers from recent Conservative governments, are vying for the leadership. However, none of them seem to possess the leadership qualities or political skills needed to repair the significant divide within the party. These candidates need the support of party members, meaning they must present political platforms that align with the base’s expectations.
The challenge is that the Conservative membership leans to the right, while the candidates, according to media reports, are considered moderates or centrists, aiming to unite the party. Voting will take place twice this week, with the lowest-scoring candidate eliminated in each round. The remaining four will then be whittled down to two by MPs during the annual party conference at the end of the month. Afterward, party members will choose the new leader.
Attention is also focused on the upcoming autumn budget, the first to be presented by the new Chancellor of the Exchequer. The outlook is not promising, and the Labor Party’s pledges to avoid austerity and tax hikes may not hold for long. These promises are expected to be circumvented in various ways.
Prime Minister Starmer has already warned the public in a recent speech that the situation may worsen before it improves. The Chancellor has also been vocal in the media, claiming that the financial situation left by the previous Conservative government is worse than expected.
She revealed a GBP22 billion deficit that the former Conservative finance minister allegedly concealed, and she plans to address it by pressuring ministers to cut their departmental budgets. Some commentators suggest this may be an attempt to justify the recent 5% pay raise for government employees, intended to prevent strikes.
The GBP22 billion deficit, however, should not significantly impact spending. Media reports indicate that the UK’s annual budget is around GBP1.2 trillion, meaning the deficit represents just 0.183 %. Inflation has decreased, and interest rates have recently dropped, which are positive economic indicators. Despite this, it seems the Chancellor may be preparing to implement measures contrary to Labor’s electoral promises.
Despite Labor’s short time in power, the media has already exposed significant violations, particularly in the hiring of special advisers to ministers. These appointments appear to have been based on political loyalty rather than competence, contradicting rules that emphasize merit and political neutrality.
One noticeable change, which is positive for supporters of closer ties with the European Union but negative for Brexit hardliners, is Prime Minister Starmer’s effort to rebuild relations with Brussels and key European capitals such as Berlin and Paris. This was evident in his recent official visits to both countries.
Media reports suggest that the British government is seeking to ease the movement of goods between the UK and EU member states by reducing customs and administrative barriers.
There is also a focus on cooperation in areas like combating illegal migration and enhancing security partnerships. However, this rapprochement will come at a cost. Brussels is reportedly demanding that London sign an agreement allowing freedom of movement and work for young people under 30 between the UK and EU countries.
The British government appears flexible on this issue, with reports indicating that it is preparing to sign the agreement. The move to improve relations with Brussels has angered right-wing newspapers opposed to the EU, which see it as an attempt to undermine Brexit.
