The deadlock in France has been broken, at least temporarily. The first step of forming the next government was taken after a prime minister was tasked with forming it.
In principle, there is nothing problematic about choosing Michel Barnier, a seasoned politician and diplomat who has distinguished himself in the corridors of French and European politics, playing a pivotal role in the negotiations between the UK and EU over Brexit.
Barnier is a man of the traditional right, which is currently represented by Les Républicans, which now has the fourth largest parliamentary bloc in France after the traditional right had exerted great influence and enjoyed remarkable support for decades. Indeed, it had been the dominant force in French politics since the emergence of the Fifth Republic, which General Charles de Gaulle had founded on the ruins of political anarchy and the frailty of some socialist and centrist leaders in the post-World War II era.
France notably lost its former colonies during this period: first with the Battle of Dien Bien Phu in Indochina, then the Algerian War of Independence, and finally the independence of France’s remaining colonies in West Africa.
De Gaulle had laid the foundations for this movement, which was later modified by its members, with some ambitious leaders, such as Valery Giscard d'Estaing, Jacques Chirac, and Nicolas Sarkozy, creating their own "schools" and naming them after themselves.
Indeed, after De Gaulle's success in building the Fifth Republic through the traditional right-wing "Gaullist" movement, the traditional left managed to regroup under the leadership of another remarkable figure, Francois Mitterrand. Mitterrand achieved this by rebuilding the Socialist Party and then gradually increasingly benefiting from an alliance with the Communists... whom he eventually tamed, coopted, and ultimately marginalized, almost completely, by the time the Berlin Wall fell, and with it the Warsaw Pact and European communism under the shadow of the former Soviet Union.
France has always been home to second rate forces - from the far right to the far left - that operate outside the two traditional "tents" of Gaullism and Mitterrandism. These forces’ fortunes would wax and wane depending on the circumstances, the quality of their leadership, the forms of challenges they faced, and the alliances they made. However, for the first time in the history of the Fifth Republic, both find themselves in the back seat.
Neither of them ever imagined that they would become extras in a play whose producer, director, and scriptwriter they have no say in. However, that has been true in France since Emmanuel Macron upended the political landscape after he turned on Socialist President Francois Hollande, founding a new party in his image - a pragmatic, ambiguous, enigmatic movement that is only loosely committed to traditional principles.
In the 2017 elections, voters did not see Macron's break with the Socialists as a "betrayal," but rather a natural course of action for an ambitious and intelligent young leader who saw President Hollande's approval collapse (as low as 4 percent by the autumn of 2016). Thus, they voted for Macron's newly-formed party, "En Marche!" (On The Move) - now part of the "Ensemble" (Together) coalition - in the subsequent general elections. They put their faith in him despite his party being in its infancy, the inexperience of its leaders, and its "gray" slogans.
In the 2022 presidential elections, when voters extended Macron’s mandate, the outcome was more a rejection of far-right Marine Le Pen than it was an endorsement of Macron. The electorate no longer believed that he had magical solutions for the problems of this "country with 258 types of cheese," as is often said to highlight the difficulty of satisfying the French people.
The outcome of this year's parliamentary elections did not only demonstrate that Macron's party is incapable of governing on its own; it also underscored the gravity of France’s governance crisis. Political and parliamentary power in France is currently shared among four forces, neither of which has much in common with any of the others. That will not change unless Macron succeeds in leveraging the immense powers of the presidency in France’s current presidential system to undermine the solidity of these blocs and exploit their contradictions.
The largest of the four political forces is the Nouveau Front Populaire (New Popular Front) or NFP, a coalition with 182 seats that brings most of France’s left-wing parties together. Macron's presidential coalition, "Ensemble," with 168 seats, is the second largest. Then comes the far-right "Rassemblement National" (National Rally), with 143 seats. "Les Républicans" are in last place, and by a large margin.
In recent weeks, the burning question has been what Macron's priorities are and which forces he would seek to isolate or break apart and create rifts within. It is no secret that Macron was never comfortable with the left having a strong parliamentary presence, and he was betting the coalition would splinter. However, he also understands the risks of betting on a direct alliance with the far-right.
Accordingly, Macron concluded that the best and safest approach was to call on a well-known and trusted figure from smaller blocs - someone whom he could come to an understanding with and be acceptable to the far-right. At the same time, he has left the door to any left-wing faction tempted by the idea of joining a coalition government open... to impel them to break with the coalition.
Michel Barnier, a man from the traditional right-wing "Les Républicans," meets the criteria that Macron has set. Thus, he was appointed before complex questions regarding the formation of the government were resolved.
At the heart of the Élysée's considerations are timing, shifting priorities, personal ambitions, and room for maneuver... why not, so long as Macron has the final say?
