Eyad Abu Shakra
TT

Amid an Escalation of Israeli Attacks… Where Is Hezbollah Headed

I assume that the nature of Israel's role, especially under its current leadership, in the ongoing crime committed in Gaza, is above dispute. It is now expanding its war and exacerbating the destruction in Lebanon.
There is no question or doubt about it, especially since the Palestinians and Lebanese are "promised" that the worst is yet to come.
On the other hand, we must recognize the divisiveness in Palestine fostered by Iran, as well as Iran's relentless efforts to separate a key Lebanese community from the others... alienate it from the state, and use it to undermine Lebanon’s sovereignty.
When a renewal of former Lebanese President Emile Lahoud’s term was imposed, the forces exercising “de facto control" defended the decision by claiming that he was the person “best equipped to stand up to the conspiracy threatening Lebanon." At that time, the Lebanese called these forces the "Syrian-Lebanese security regime," lacking the curiosity needed to delve deeper into the identity of that regime, which was only "Syrian-Lebanese" in name and in its tools. That is because this "regime," as the events that would later unfold demonstrated, was part of an Iranian project to establish regional hegemony and sow division.
On the other hand, this strategic project could not be marketed with an "Iranian" label or its dreams of "divisive hegemony"- especially with Israel. Thus, a national, bright, and attractive slogan that deserves sacrifice was adopted: "resistance." The slogan had some justification, as parts of southern Lebanon were “occupied territory” at that time, and Israeli warplanes had free reign over its skies. The Lebanese had many wounds, pains, and memories of this... and they sympathized with their brothers in Palestine and the Golan who suffered, and still suffer, the injustices of Israeli occupation.
Thus, just as the Lebanese rose to embrace the Palestinian resistance in 1968, they sympathized with "Hezbollah" when it was performing actual "resistance" duties... before Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000. However, opinions shifted after 2000, and the "contours" of the hegemony and division project began to become clear. Albeit timidly, its proponents justified the project by framing it as support for the "resistance" and confrontation of the "conspiracy" against it. The previously mentioned imposition of another Lahoud term in September 2004 (against the backdrop of UN Resolution 1559 calling for an end to foreign interference in Lebanon) was the "first station.” The following month, there was an assassination attempt made against Minister Marwan Hamadeh, an ally of both Rafic Hariri and Walid Jumblatt. It was an "early message" to those involved! The "second station" was the assassination of Rafic Hariri himself in February 2005, which triggered seismic repercussions, including a wave of horrific assassinations, and ultimately led to the withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon.
Following the withdrawal, the "third station" had been reached. Hezbollah began openly taking actual power after the pretense that the "Syrian-Lebanese security regime" was necessary and became surplus to requirements. It didn’t take long before we got to the "fourth station." The "2006 War" ended any "illusions" that Hezbollah was a Lebanese organization in its principles, loyalties, and command... that sought only "resistance." This painful fact was affirmed when, in 2008, Hezbollah pointed its weapons (which had been directed southward until 2006) toward the interior... invading Beirut and attempting to invade southern Mount Lebanon, antagonizing Lebanese sectarian and religious communities that it could have avoided antagonizing.
Then came the "fifth station." The dimensions of the Iranian project and the party’s role in this project became clear, the "resistance" arsenal became a tool for killing, abusing, and displacing Syrians, with Hezbollah fighters accused of committing numerous massacres and displacing entire regions of the country... Now, we are at what can be considered the "sixth station" following the "Al-Aqsa Flood" operation and the catastrophic repercussions it has had for the Palestinians and Lebanese, exposing many assumptions and intentions. The planners, executors, and supporters of the operation either overlooked fundamental facts or deliberately ignored them to serve their "operators."
Chief among them are two facts. First, this Israeli government is the most extreme in Israel's history. It is led by the most belligerent and spiteful leaders Israel has ever had; no government has been less keen on a peaceful settlement, and it includes two ministers whose declared aim is a "population transfer." Second, they undertook an operation against Israeli civilians during a US presidential election year, meaning it is futile to seek American efforts to deter Israel against displacement aggression. Even if those who planned and executed the attack imagined that the regional climate could undermine Israel’s retaliation, here is what happened.
After nearly a year of limited to ineffective "support" from groups affiliated with Iran, the latter’s leadership is making contradictory, evasion, and even weakening statements. In the Palestinian territories, the Gaza Strip has been displaced after its destruction and the elimination of some of the prominent leaders of "Hamas," including Ismail Haniyeh, Mohammed Deif, and Saleh al-Arouri... In Lebanon, Hezbollah’s communication infrastructure has been hit and much of its top brass has been eliminated, with thousands of citizens displaced from the south. In contrast, the Supreme Leader issued in Tehran released a fatwa supporting "tactical retreat," and Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, before his visit to the United States, assured us that the "Iranians and Americans are brothers, and there is no enmity between them!!"
Thus, the Iranian project has reached an advanced stage. Tehran has exploited its "tools"- which have long deceived their popular base- to further its project of hegemony and sit at the negotiating table with Israel and the US, with whom it seeks to share regional influence at the expense of Arab blood, Arab humanity, and Arabs’ future. However, I believe that it is not too late for Hamas to go back to supporting the cause of its people... nor for Hezbollah to embrace its state.