The wheels of the US presidential elections are already in motion, as early voting has begun in many states. As November 5 approaches, with the political violence hovering above, a major question is being asked loudly: "What is the position of the US military establishment, especially if violence erupts across the country?"
The significance, and perhaps the gravity, of this question arises from fear of violent clashes between the supporters of the two candidates, which could potentially lead to the worst-case scenario as the losing candidate refuses to accept the results and declares that they have won the winner. This would leave the United States with both a “regular” and shadow government, plunging the country into domestic social conflict and potentially leading to civil war.
The US military is known for its discipline. According to the US Constitution, it is entirely subject to civilian control- the President, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, and popular oversight through Congress.
However, recent history, particularly during President Trump's term, tells us that this approach can sometimes be fraught with risks. During his one term, senior military leaders, both active and retired, played a role in persuading the President to abandon his most perilous ideas. Critics of the Trump administration were grateful for the way these officers behaved like the "adults in the room," although Trump supporters, including Trump himself, believe that the military establishment undermined his work and prevented him from accomplishing everything he wanted to do.
Did the US military establishment indeed overreach during the difficult final days of Trump’s term?
During the crisis of January 6, 2021, they did. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley reached out to his Chinese counterpart, Li Zuocheng, to assure him that the US was not on the brink of war with China. Trump later considered this treachery that warrants a court-martial.
The US military establishment seems ready to intervene in politics, especially if the union is threatened. This seems evident, as many Confederate flags are flown high between Texas in the deep south and California on the Pacific.
Here, senior US analysts ask: Can the US President call upon the military to push back against threats?
It is known that the president in the US, any president, can resort to what is known as the "Insurrection Act," a federal law that allows the President to deploy armed forces and the National Guard in any state under certain circumstances, as in the event of civil disorder and insurrection for example.
However, the anticipated post-November 5 scenarios are frightening, as acknowledged by US generals themselves. The events that unfold could make invoking this law difficult; it would pit members of the military establishment against a divided popular will. Ultimately, these army figures are of the people. They are not detached from them, meaning that societal fragmentation and state disintegration would only deepen.
Last March, Risa Brooks, a professor at Marquette University in Wisconsin, a swing state, wrote for “Foreign Policy” to ring the alarm about what she calls "the gradual politicization of the US military."
Brooks argues that the US has a lot to lose from the military abandoning its partisan neutrality and that US national security would be compromised because military advice would be distorted by political actions.
However, some senior generals have gone even further. For example, in early December 2021, three senior retired generals warned of an insurrection or perhaps a civil war if segments of the US armed forces do not accept the presidential election results.
Retired Major Generals Paul D. Eaton and Antonio M. Taguba, along with retired Brigadier General Steven M. Anderson, express this view. They have formed a front of former military personnel that is warning the civilian political leadership of a yawning abyss after November 5. Their concerns are especially significant in light of the fact that the Democrats- even if Trump wins the popular vote and electoral- say they will prevent him from returning to the White House by invoking the third clause of the Fourteenth Amendment of the Constitution.
It would be naive to claim that the US military establishment has not already prepared for all possibilities, including the complete breakdown of the chain of command along partisan lines.
Is America on the verge of its first military coup in history?
