Amos Hochstein, the American envoy to Lebanon, is in a race against time. A handful of days separate the world from the US presidential elections. The US and the whole world are awaiting the name of the new master of the White House.
The world reads about the weakening of the West and reduced role played by the United States. It reads about the rise of China and the BRICS group and their economic weight and population. It reads about China’s rise and the diminishing role played by the West.
However, as the US elections draw near, the world begins to realize that America is still America and that it is the key, even when many claim that it is the problem. The people of the Middle East know this truth. The region cannot end its wars without the US having its say. Vladimir Putin is embroiled in the war in Ukraine. His military intervention in Syria did not increase his role in resolving regional crises. The need remains for the man seated in the White House, even if he is not running for re-election and as he counts his final days in office.
Hochstein is now on his final attempt. He will inform Netanyahu of Washington’s relief that Israel’s retaliation against Iran reflected a desire to not expand the war. He will reiterate that the US stands by the Jewish state, citing how President Joe Biden was at ease with the cooperation with Netanyahu in setting the list of targets in Iran after months of misunderstandings and frosty relations between them.
Hochstein may be banking on a temporary ceasefire as a gesture from Netanyahu towards Kamala Harris and the possibility of her electoral victory after he sensed that Donald Trump may win the race.
Hochstein will inform Netanyahu that Israel made strategic gains in its war that it must invest at the negotiations table. It weakened Hamas’ capabilities and killed Yahya al-Sinwar. It dealt huge blows to Hezbollah and killed its leader Hassan Nasrallah. He will encourage Netanyahu to agree to a ceasefire in Gaza and to keep the enclave out of a military confrontation, at least in the long-term. On the Lebanese front, Hochstein will say that the southern Lebanese front must be removed from the military aspect of the conflict, at least in the long-term.
He will also say that Israel’s latest attack on Iran demonstrated its ability to reach any point there. This means that Israel has restored its deterrence and now is the time to return to the negotiations table.
I recalled comments by a European diplomat, who has close work ties to the American envoy. He told me that Hochstein will stress to Netanyahu that there can be no end to the war on Lebanon without the implementation of UN Security Council resolution 1701. He will propose to him the idea of “international monitoring” of the implementation to ensure that Hezbollah does not establish military infrastructure south of the Litani River.
The diplomat acknowledged that the hopes are low that Hochstein will be successful, but the idea of ending the “unity of arenas” between Lebanon and Gaza may be tempting to the Israelis, who will seize their one-time opportunity to do so should the Lebanese side be unresponsive to suggestions.
The diplomat added that Hochstein will inform Netanyahu that a long war on Lebanon could undermine the cohesion of his security institutions, which Iran would happily exploit, making the “next day” scenario for the war on Lebanon as difficult as it is in Gaza. Hochstein will advise Netanyahu to build on the Lebanese government’s vow to implement resolution 1701 and send the army to the South.
The diplomat noted that CIA Director William Burns is also making a last-ditch visit to Doha to discuss the issue of hostages held in Gaza. He will meet with Mossad chief David Barnea and stress to him that the time is now to agree to a ceasefire in Gaza, even if it is a small deal that would pave the way for a broader one.
Will Hochstein’s talks in Netanyahu give him enough hope that he would visit Beirut? It is hard to tell given how complicated the wars and cards are. We must wait and see what Iran’s real reading of the Israeli strike is. Supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s comments were general and open to interpretation: “We mustn't underestimate or exaggerate the Israeli attack.” Others have said Tehran reserves the right to respond at the appropriate time. Reading Iranian signals is difficult at the best of times, so how about now?
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards are right to feel provoked when Israeli fighter jets flew over Iran. The hovering of jets means that they are capable of targeting oil and nuclear facilities, which Netanyahu, at Biden’s insistence, kept off the hit list. Will the latest Israeli strike embarrass the Iranian authorities in front of their people and allies or will they be able to avoid a direct response that will inevitably be met with America deciding to defend Israel?
If Iran opts against falling into the trap of a direct clash with the US, does it have any option other than replying through Hezbollah in Lebanon? Can Iran agree to take the Lebanese front out of the conflict through the implementation of resolution of 1701 and effectively end the “unity of arenas”? Can Hezbollah return to resolution 1701 and acknowledge that the “support front” for Gaza was a costly and hasty move on its part?
This is why Hochstein’s visit appears very difficult. We may learn the name the new master of the White House amid the Israeli raids and Hezbollah drone and rocket attacks. Moreover, it won’t be easy for Hochstein to remove mines in a handful of days. As we await the emergence of the right conditions for a ceasefire, Netanyahu’s government will not hesitate in wiping out more southern Lebanese villages. It has not learned lessons from the past.
