Lebanon’s conundrum has entered a new phase after Hezbollah rebuffed the major political strides of the government, most notably its reaffirmation of the principle that arms must remain monopolized by state and its subsequent endorsement of the proposal that US Presidential Envoy Tom Barrack had presented to the authorities: the president, parliament speaker, and prime minister.
If the party was initially restrained in its refusal to relinquish its weapons. It soon changed its tune. It is now choosing overt, unambiguous, and uncompromising escalation. Over the following days, youths on motorcycles took to the streets, waving yellow flags and deliberately provoking Beirut’s residents. The spectacle even passed through Rafik Hariri International Airport - a move that has no justification.
There is no denying that the party and its base have endured much more in recent months than had been expected. The collapse of its so-called “deterrence” and its failure to back up its slogans marked a turning point. The pager attack was a devastating blow, and not only because of the lives it claimed. It broke the group’s morale, shattering its image as a formidable force.
The assassination of the party’s secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, and then, just a few days later, his successor, Hashem Safieddine, was an even heavier blow. Nasrallah was not merely Hezbollah’s leader in Lebanon; his influence spanned the region and reached Tehran, which saw him as a central pillar of its so-called “Axis of Resistance.”
Coupled with the ferocious war during which Israel destroyed not only numerous weapons depots but also thousands of homes and residential units, these catastrophic setbacks profoundly shocked the party’s supporters. Indeed, they saw everything that had been built over four decades eviscerated in less than 40 days.
The reluctance of the party and its base to surrender arms may be understandable, but it cannot be defended. The “100,000 rockets” it had boasted of failed to protect the party, its supporters, or Lebanon during the war. The South, the Bekaa, and much of Beirut’s southern suburbs were destroyed, and the party failed to do anything to deter Israel as it had long been promised it would.
The liberation of 2000 - an achievement of national significance resulting from the accumulation of efforts made during a struggle waged by multiple forces, including the resistance, and was attained without a peace treaty - has been undercut by Israel’s ongoing occupation of five disputed points. Israel continues to violate Lebanon’s sovereignty: targeted attacks on villages, areas, and individuals, as well as drones buzzing over the capital and other regions. None of this is atypical of Israel.
It is evident that Hezbollah’s retention of its arsenal is becoming increasingly untenable. The political support it once enjoyed has been eroding. One after another, the various Lebanese forces once allied with the party are distancing themselves from it. It is equally evident that the relevant international actors, especially the Americans, will not take a softer approach or reverse course in the foreseeable future. Moreover, everyone understands that the shifting balance of power in the Middle East will inevitably reshape Lebanese politics.
Hezbollah cannot simply ignore the events of recent months and continue to recycle rhetoric of the past. It must take a clear-eyed view of these consequential changes and recalibrate accordingly. Above all, it would be against the party’s own interests to allow the current situation to spiral into an intra-Lebanese conflict, for nothing would serve Israel more than a civil war.
By the same token, the Lebanese state cannot abandon the South and its people. They cannot be “left in the open” with nothing protecting them from Israel’s daily strikes and violations by air, land, and sea. It must act decisively to restore stability to the region by ensuring the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from every position that remains under occupation in blatant violation of Resolution 1701 and of the ceasefire agreement reached in November 2024.
Until new approaches, new realities, and therefore new outcomes arise, Lebanese citizens will remain apprehensive; fear will continue to shape their lives.
