More than two million Palestinians are waiting for the sun to rise and for this long, dark night to end – the most brutal war in the history of Palestine’s conflicts. At this important moment, announced in Washington on Monday, the hope that feels both near and far still faces many challenges.
The most prominent of these challenges is whether both Hamas and Israel will accept the plan to end the war – or whether they will impose conditions that prolong the implementation talks and undermine the opportunity.
It is clear that Hamas is not satisfied, nor is Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Hamas no longer has allies to shield it – even Qatar and Turkey have agreed to and are supporting the plan, and are participating alongside Egypt in the negotiations. Iran is no longer in a position to assist Hamas after it lost much of its supportive military capability.
As for Netanyahu, he does not dare challenge President Trump, who has the power to bring him down through his ties with Netanyahu’s own political bloc – and Netanyahu could even end up in prison.
It is likely that Hamas will eventually lay down its weapons and that its field commanders will depart for Algeria or Turkey, as is being suggested. But not so quickly. Ceasefire understandings are rarely reached easily, as each side clings to its interpretations and adds new conditions and guarantees. Those who drafted the ceasefire and Gaza administration plan say they drew on previous experiences in Bosnia and Timor.
Hamas’ expected objections will include: First, the entry of Israeli forces into areas it used to control, as Hamas will not settle for only retrieving its hostages and the remains of its fighters. Second, it will object to being excluded from civilian governance in Gaza, made worse by the plan’s stipulation that the Palestinian Authority take over municipal, health, education, judicial, and civil security services.
Third, the nature of the guarantees offered to the movement remains unclear – including whether Israel will refrain from pursuing or assassinating Hamas members in the coming years, something Israel has done for decades.
Netanyahu, too, has his objections. The agreement deprives him of the promise he made to control Gaza and prevents the displacement of its residents. Even those permitted to leave voluntarily are guaranteed the right to return, according to a clause in Tony Blair’s plan, and their properties cannot be confiscated. Moreover, Israel - which believes it had tightened the noose around Hamas and approached its hideouts and tunnels after launching the assault on Gaza City- must now stop and release about 2,000 Palestinians in exchange for the remaining hostages, both living and dead. This is hardly the victory Netanyahu had planned for, and it may backfire on him politically.
Yet there remains strong hope that we are witnessing the end of the war – even with staunch opposition from both Hamas and Netanyahu.
