The assumption that the Saudi Crown Prince’s visit to Washington was mainly about dealing with regional shifts is an exaggerated one. What is reasonable to say is that it was the most significant visit in decades, because it elevated the relationship between the two countries to a new level. It was strengthened by the strategic defense agreement and the advanced weaponry that made Saudi Arabia a deeper ally than before. Washington also backed the Crown Prince’s project to transform the Kingdom into an advanced global technology and economic hub, and the two governments signed a nuclear cooperation agreement that lays the groundwork for a partnership that will stretch for decades.
What about the joint strategic defense agreement? It is more valuable than building a one-million-soldier army when it comes to deterrence. But if countries that have defense treaties with the United States rarely need to activate them, then what is their real value? The agreement that was signed is not primarily meant to respond to an attack. More importantly, it is meant to prevent the very idea of an attack from forming in the first place.
The last time North Korea attacked its neighbor South Korea was in 1953, and since then the people of Seoul have lived in peace, even with seven hundred thousand North Korean soldiers massed behind the demilitarized zone just forty kilometers from their city. Despite Pyongyang’s threats, its forces have not dared cross the border for eighty years.
For nearly nine decades, Saudi Arabia has had a strong relationship with the United States. It was tested once when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. Riyadh’s special relationship with Washington helped end the occupation and safeguard Gulf security.
In another instance, Iran struck the Abqaiq area at four in the morning, temporarily halting oil production at one of Saudi Arabia’s most vital facilities for several days. Later, Iran became a target of American pressure. That attack reinforced the idea of structuring the relationship militarily, and it pushed China to sponsor the reconciliation agreement between Riyadh and Tehran, which proved important for both sides during the region’s recent turbulence.
The defense agreement is not the product of a crisis, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman did not go to Washington during a war or under threat against his country that would force him to offer concessions.
The agreement came after he had already built a strong relationship with China and after he ended the dispute with Tehran under Beijing’s sponsorship. This means the agreement has long-term goals and is rooted in strengthening deterrence. Saudi Arabia is a vast country with long land and sea borders stretching around seven thousand kilometers, which makes a deterrence strategy the best option for discouraging hostile planning, since its consequences would be devastating for any aggressor.
And the agreement raises a set of questions. Is it aimed at Tehran? Iran today seeks a good relationship with Riyadh and, after its confrontation with Israel, is even more in need of being close to Saudi Arabia. Is it aimed at China? That is impossible to imagine, since China is Saudi Arabia’s biggest economic partner. Will it serve Israel? Nearly all opposition voices to the agreement and the weapons deals have come from Israel.
The agreement has become even more important with the F-35 fighter jet and tank deals. It is the most significant development since the 1945 meeting between King Abdulaziz and President Roosevelt, who declared Saudi Arabia strategically important to the United States. The relationship can be seen from both sides. For Americans, Saudi Arabia is strategically important. For Saudis, the United States is an economic, scientific, and military superpower that makes it a necessary partner.
The recurring question remains: Are these commitments tied to President Trump? Partly, yes. He is the president, and no agreement can be concluded without him. At the same time, the relationship is strong with other political actors as well. The American political establishment in general is convinced of the importance of ties with Riyadh.
We also saw how the Crown Prince handled his exchange with President Trump in the Oval Office in front of reporters. Trump asked MBS who he thought was the best president for Saudi Arabia, beside himself.
The Crown Prince replied, “Roosevelt... a Democrat.”
Trump: “Roosevelt?!”
The Crown Prince: “Yes, Roosevelt and Reagan... and we work with any American president.”
Trump, jokingly: “But Trump is the best, right?”
Naturally, in Trump’s presence it is uncomfortable to praise anyone else, especially Democrats. Even so, the point was made clearly. And in the future, we will likely see support for Saudi Arabia from both the Republican and Democratic parties, because the strategic relationship with Riyadh is not a matter of dispute.
