At the end of last week, during an Arab intellectual forum, a diplomat spoke about the Arab world’s situation with a degree of pessimistic candor rarely heard from professional diplomats.
Speaking “from the heart” in deliberately unscripted remarks, he said: “Our situation is bad, and things are certainly not going well.” He then went on to explain in detail various aspects of the failures and ambiguities surrounding the Arab world today, as well as the challenges confronting our region amid the international circumstances with which we are all familiar.
His remarks gave me the opportunity, in my intervention the following day, to be equally candid, including acknowledging our own shortcomings.
Yet without delving into the figures and statistics that demonstrate the depth of our crisis, and without indulging excessively in self-flagellation, I suggested that our predicament is part of a broader set of crises shaped by a “global leadership crisis.”
Indeed, there appears to be no coherent and robust strategy among the major powers, whether states or institutions, that control the mechanisms of decision-making, crisis resolution and priority-setting. As a result, we are witnessing confusion, misguided bets and hesitation in adopting early remedies for crises that are likely to worsen unless action is taken quickly to contain them and curb their repercussions.
The Arab world faces crises that threaten the fate of some of its most sensitive regions, while others have major political, military and economic repercussions for the entire world.
The dangerous and explosive situation in the Gulf, for example, should never have reached its current stage, let alone what it may, God forbid, yet become, had it been possible to devise a reasonable and binding alternative to the Iranian nuclear agreement.
Accordingly, the continuing vacuum created by the absence of a formula binding Iran to an alternative “agreement” has given the Israeli right free rein to escalate, entangle others, incite tensions and expand, with unconditional support and cover from Washington and the hard-line evangelical lobby.
Thus, whether knowingly or not, the intransigence of Tehran’s “hawks” has given Benjamin Netanyahu and his extremist associates the opportunity, first, to destroy Gaza and seek to eliminate Palestine as both a people and a cause, and second, to undermine every prospect for peace with Israel’s “neighbors,” under defensive pretexts, whether in Lebanon, Iraq or Yemen, and later Syria.
There is no doubt that global “energy security” is an extremely sensitive issue that neither Washington nor the Western capitals supporting it in its war against Iran will take lightly. This is why the issue of “guaranteeing freedom of navigation” through the Straits of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab has become a matter of near-consensus, even among Western capitals that do not fully embrace the priorities of US President Donald Trump.
At the same time, there is little indication that the US position can count heavily on Moscow’s and Beijing’s silence regarding these two vital waterways, which are a priority for every Gulf Cooperation Council state. This comes as Trump’s current policies, based on attempts to appease the Kremlin over the Russia-Ukraine war, are causing growing concern in Europe.
Meanwhile, some observers believe that the West’s preoccupation with developments in the Middle East, and with the mistakes that could be committed there on the basis of either miscalculations or Israeli considerations, is leaving China relatively comfortable and able to remain focused on advancing its technological and economic ambitions worldwide.
The loss of the ability to exercise “containment” is an extremely dangerous reality in a volatile region such as the Middle East.
More than ever, there is now a need to pursue practical and effective options capable of preventing a further slide toward catastrophe. This is particularly urgent as restraints on arming “third parties” have broken down and extremist groups, whether state-backed or mercenary, exploit confusion and disagreements to trigger potentially catastrophic escalation across the region.
It is true that attention is currently focused on Iran and what Washington will decide to do about it. But the situation in Palestine has become catastrophic by every measure. Nor do the prospects look at all promising on the two fronts of Israeli “expansion” at the expense of Lebanon and Syria. With regard to Syria in particular, Turkish assessments must be closely watched as the Israeli right openly seeks to draw Ankara into conflict with the “Christian world,” beginning with Greece and Cyprus.
Moreover, if we recall the map displayed by the Israeli prime minister before the international media showing an area stretching “from the Euphrates to the Nile,” we must pay close attention to the means Israel could employ to influence developments.
These range from exploiting the issue of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Ethiopia’s favor to securing alternatives to the Suez Canal, the vital artery of the Egyptian economy. Nor should we overlook Netanyahu’s establishment of a foothold in “Somaliland,” which would ease Addis Ababa’s concerns by providing it with access to the sea, thereby reducing its need to make concessions to its Arab neighbors.
These are brief snapshots of the troubling reality confronting our Arab region.
In my view, this situation calls for serious reflection, rather than wasting time pointing fingers, trading accusations or opening up distracting side battles.
