Amid intense diplomatic efforts, spearheaded by Qatari mediation and Turkish-Pakistani moves to resume US-Iran talks and avert conflict after the US midterms, and reported Pentagon plans for potential military strikes on Tehran, global attention is fixed on the region's trajectory. Entering one of its most critical and complex phases, the fallout from this standoff threatens to ripple far beyond regional borders, jeopardizing global energy security, maritime navigation, and international economic stability.
In support of Qatari and Pakistani mediation efforts, the meeting between the leadership in Tehran and representatives of the Makkah Joint Defense Agreement nations—Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan—served as an extension of these initiatives aimed at de-escalation and promoting diplomatic solutions. However, the significance of this meeting may transcend merely containing the current crisis, potentially opening new horizons for broader regional security arrangements in which Saudi Arabia highlights its leadership role in fostering a balance of power and supporting dialogue.
This raises the critical question: Can the Makkah Agreement provide a solid foundation for building a more stable regional security system, one in which Iran becomes a stakeholder in the regional security equation rather than a perpetual source of threat to it?
The importance of the Makkah Agreement is not limited to strengthening defense cooperation among its parties, but extends to its potential contribution toward reinforcing the regional balance of power and opening avenues for dialogue and stability. Deterrence does not necessarily imply that the three nations are ready for war or confrontation; on the contrary, it can serve to prevent it when each party recognizes the limits of power and the cost of its deployment.
History demonstrates that stability is not achieved merely by possessing power, but rather through the existence of a balance that prevents any single party from imposing its will on others. This is the very concept Henry Kissinger addressed in his famous book “Diplomacy”, in which he reviewed the experience of the European order established after the Congress of Vienna in 1815, where the principle of the balance of power, alongside political understandings among major powers, contributed to laying the foundation for a long period of relative stability.
Consequently, the Makkah Agreement could serve as an opportunity to reinforce the regional balance, making deterrence a supporter of diplomacy rather than a substitute for it, and paving the way for building more stable and comprehensive security arrangements.
Furthermore, the Makkah Agreement will by no means serve as a substitute for existing security alliances and partnerships, but rather as an addition that reinforces and integrates with the regional security framework. The agreement does not conflict with the strategic partnership between Saudi Arabia and the United States, the Gulf defense cooperation system, Türkiye's membership in NATO, or Pakistan's defense partnerships. Instead, it opens broader avenues for cooperation among the three nations, thereby boosting their shared capabilities and helping in anchoring the balance of power and stability in the region.
Iran remains an important regional power by virtue of its geographical location and its political and military weight, which cannot be ignored in any future regional security arrangements. Gradually involving it in broader security frameworks could be an option that serves long-term regional stability, provided that Iran is willing to change its behavior by respecting state sovereignty, halting its interventions through armed groups, and committing to maritime security and common security rules, thereby paving the way for its transition from a source of tension to a partner in regional stability.
The European experience proved that the gradual reintegration of France and Germany into the European order after the continent's wars helped in transforming them from sources of conflict into partners in stability by tying their interests to shared rules.
When Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister, declared during the 2018 Future Investment Initiative conference that the Middle East would become the "new Europe" and that the region's renaissance was his "personal war," he was not speaking about the future of Saudi Arabia alone. Rather, he was referring to a region that possesses the youth potential, economic resources, and strategic foundations qualifying it to become a global hub for growth and prosperity. This is the vision that Saudi Arabia embodies today through Vision 2030 and its economic and developmental transformations.
Iran is not far from these opportunities, given its vast natural resources and significant human and economic capabilities; however, decades of conflicts, tensions, and isolation have contributed to draining its potential and deepening its economic and social crises. Perhaps the opportunity is available today for Tehran to reconsider its priorities and engage in a regional path that makes development and cooperation an alternative to conflict, and shared prosperity an interest that takes precedence over calculations of influence and confrontation.
The future of this region should not remain hostage to conflicts and tensions, but must instead be built on shared interests and opportunities for development and prosperity. No one wants to see Iran become another Iraq, another Libya, or another Sudan, given the humanitarian suffering, divisions, and instability that these experiences entail. What is required is not a change of the Iranian regime as much as a change in its behavior, so that it becomes part of the region's stability rather than a source of threat to it. This is a responsibility that lies first and foremost with the Iranian leadership, which must realize that the strength of nations is not measured by their ability to threaten their neighbors, but by the security, dignity, and opportunities for a better future that they provide to their peoples.
