Iraq: ‘Butterfly Effect’ in State Governance

Sixty-six years have passed since the 14 July Revolution in 1958, an event that still sparks debate among Iraqis. Some support the shift to a republic, while others argue a monarchy is better for Iraq’s complexities.
While I won’t judge the event itself, its deep-rooted causes, or its aftermath, the violent end of the royal family cannot be justified. Supporting any bloodshed-driven change is unacceptable. This coup set the stage for ongoing repercussions that we still face today.
The “Butterfly Effect” is a theory that explains how small differences in the initial state of a dynamic system can lead to significant changes over time.
This begs the question: if small differences can cause such big effects, what about large differences? What changes will they bring?
The events of July 14, 1958, must be examined from multiple angles to fully understand their impact. This revolution shaped the Iraqi Republic and its political system, paving the way for future coups and the rise of Saddam Hussein. His rule led to Iraq’s isolation from the world.
These events changed the state’s structure and the mindset of its people, replacing the concept of the state with the dominance of power and fear. This culminated in the dramatic fall on April 9, 2003, with consequences that continue to affect Iraq and the region today.
The interplay of historical events and their impacts requires a deeper understanding of our surroundings, both within Iraq and globally. Understanding past events and what they established helps us comprehend the present and foresee the future.
It’s clear that Iraq, its institutions, and its governance are still directly influenced, both positively and negatively, by the events of July 14.
My perspective is that a style of governance established during that era has persisted to this day, becoming an entrenched norm and a culture that is difficult to confront. This pattern extends beyond the rulers to the behavior of the governed, evolving and deepening due to the circumstances we experience or are influenced by.
Unfortunately, this has led many to avoid honest dialogue necessary for comprehensive reconciliation. Instead, they pursue short-term populist goals, lacking a long-term, integrative vision that transcends individual interests and elevates the name of the state and nation.
It’s important to recognize that evaluating previous and subsequent strategies, actions, and decisions isn’t just about seeing things in black or white. Fairness requires a thorough analysis, understanding the contexts, backgrounds, and consequences. It’s about choosing the best path for constructive progress and calmly addressing negative impacts of decisions before it’s too late.
We also remember Nuri al-Said, who fell victim to emotional reactions over reasoned approaches. He was unfairly vilified for populist agendas and inflammatory rhetoric that aimed to incite anger against the existing reality and advocate for a new order!
Unfortunately, little has changed. Some of Nuri al-Said's visions were realized, while conflicting ones worsened the situation. Many, including elites, now regret the outcomes. Beyond rhetoric, there’s a lament for losing a true statesman in Iraq’s foundational era.
Al-Said’s absence signifies more than just a physical loss; it reflects a shift from statehood and reason to chaos, ignorance, and emotion. Understanding Iraq’s history—how it was founded, its evolving course, and pivotal moments—is crucial now. How were challenges addressed, and were solutions aligned with the diagnoses?
These questions are debated behind closed doors, where answers often prioritize immediate circumstances over strategic foresight, favoring personal interests over public welfare.
Iraq’s current challenges are intertwined with regional and global crises. Rooted internal crises interact with a world incapable of producing solutions, particularly amidst economic turmoil.
The real impact lies in understanding all this, making precise diagnoses, implementing sometimes harsh treatments, and achieving long-term benefits for the state and its people.
This challenge is part of a political process that has gradually lost service-oriented values to pursuit of gain, ethics to demonization, and national interests to leader-centric agendas.
Establishing systematic values is pivotal for Iraq’s political future, aligning with similar principles in governance.