On the twelfth day of Israel’s preemptive campaign against Iran, the war between Israel and Iran ended following US President Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire.
Wars typically end once one or more of the parties is defeated and surrenders. They can also end when the warring sides reach a mutually satisfactory agreement. Does this mean that we should expect a possible resumption of military operations between Israel and Iran? Or is the negotiation phase about to begin, potentially bringing an end to the violence that has gripped the region?
If war is a gamble, then so is providing an answer to the question above, leading many reluctant to do so. History tells us that it is easy to deliberately spark the flames of war, but once they break out, the instigator fails to redirect or contain them.
As soon as President Trump announced the cessation of hostilities, the two sides’ leaders rushed to declare victory. The Israeli prime minister boasted of having destroyed Iran’s nuclear program and of liquidating key members of Iran’s military and security top brass. Iranian leaders, on the other hand, declared repelling the Israeli attack a victory. Alternative accounts have not yet surfaced, but may soon come to light, and they seem insightful.
War is also about deception. The more elaborate the ruse, the greater the odds of victory. Ironically, the biggest ruse of this conflict wasn’t planned by Iran or Israel. It was the Americans who planned and executed it! President Trump, along with his advisers and military commanders, fooled the media and observers alike, unexpectedly striking three Iranian nuclear facilities in the early hours of last Sunday.
The Americans used both media and military tactics to maintain the element of surprise. President Trump skillfully led a misinformation campaign that drew the attention of commentators. US media outlets reported that military leaders had been on edge, fearing that President Trump might leak the secret. On the military level, the American Secretary of Defense called the degree of secrecy involved in the planning "unprecedented."
Assessing the degree to which US strikes succeeded in destroying the three Iranian nuclear facilities may not be appropriate, given the doubts around the credibility of American officials’ claim, especially to Western (particularly American) media outlets. Nonetheless, Iran’s Foreign Minister acknowledged the significant damage inflicted on the Iranian nuclear facilities.
The most obvious outcome of this war, so far, seems to be that Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has come out a winner. Western media outlets have reported that he regained his popularity after the public’s approval of his leadership had plummeted. Now, his approval has suddenly surged to unprecedented highs. If he wanted to, Netanyahu could dissolve the government and win the ensuing parliamentary elections.
The end of the war does not, by any standard, amount to anything more than a fragile truce between enemies. In fact, the war has only intensified and deepened their mutual animosity. Many Western circles are nervous about the 400 kilograms of enriched uranium that the Iranians claim to have successfully concealed. Iran could use them to follow in Iraq’s footsteps. After Israel bombed its nuclear reactor, Iraq sought to develop a clandestine program. For today’s Iran, this would mean denying the International Atomic Energy Agency access.
President Trump has said that his negotiating team would meet an Iranian delegation, though he added that he personally believed that there was no need for such talks. He says that he is convinced that American bombers had succeeded in destroying Iran’s nuclear program. The director of the CIA affirmed this conclusion, and this assessment was also echoed by the US Secretary of Defense. However, Iran, through its Foreign Minister, has announced that it is not inclined to negotiate.
We hope that this tug-of-war ends, and that these tensions, which serve no one’s interest, are resolved.
