The Lebanese grew weary of waiting for the "major retaliation" that Iran and Hezbollah have threatened. But it seems that this boredom didn't last long, as they soon began awaiting a strike the Israelis had claimed they would carry out. That, at least, is what the statements of their rabid officials, especially those of the army, have been suggesting. In addition to calls for "focusing on the north" and talk of "transferring military forces there," increasing numbers are reaching the conclusion that Amos Hochstein's efforts will not dissipate the tensions on the southern border, nor bring the displaced back to their homes, nor consolidate the implementation of Resolution 1701. The wait for either one of these two strikes is painful and terrifying; anticipating war always is, especially as images of the atrocities that the Israelis have committed, and are committing, in Gaza are constantly being broadcast on television and circulated on social media.
It seems that Lebanon is not the only arena of disappointment. There are many reasons to be afraid and hurt in several other countries as well. That does not inevitably mean that war will break out, but it does mean that it could break out and that the likelihood of a war is high. The "deal," which has been the subject of meetings in several regional and international capitals, might never take off. While the role of the US in this process is the subject of debate, the optimistic signals it has conveyed (for purely American considerations) obscure the pessimistic reality of the "deal's" status.
Meanwhile, the battles in Gaza are close to their conclusion, and having gained nothing from the "support" provided by the “Axis of Resistance,” Gaza is itself ending with them. Amid the heart-breaking scenes coming out of the Strip, there is growing concern for the West Bank, which is being ravaged by settlement expansion and organized mayhem. After 11 months of fighting, it has become clear that immense pressure and broad condemnation have failed to impose a ceasefire on Benjamin Netanyahu. Benefiting from a transitional period in the United States, Netanyahu continues, with typical repugnant conceit, to behave like he is luring the others, one by one, into war. Besides his military machine, he is armed with an American armada- with its land bases and aircraft carriers in the sea- the likes of which the region has never seen. Netanyahu also managed to reconsolidate his domestic standing following the recent operations in Beirut and Tehran, and to remove some of the pressure to bring home the hostages taken on October 7 and are still alive. With the Israeli prime minister having explicitly prioritized crossings over the safety of the hostages, he has effectively stripped Hamas of the strongest card it still has to play, if not its last one.
On the other hand, reluctance, contradiction, and stalling have defined Iran’s rhetoric about its “retaliation.” Its new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has been tasked with tempering its behavior so that the country is seen as patient, wise, and open to the world- not qualities that were associated with Tehran in the past. At the same time, it is becoming clear that the Arab position, the stances of both its people and officials, have no more of an impact than that of the Palestinian people and officials. "Failure," "repression," and "complicity" do not provide a full explanation for the Arabs’ ineffectiveness without reference to certain global shifts, including those of the Middle East, and the emergence of new generations, interests, and values; and while reservations regarding many of them are warranted, they cannot be ignored or overlooked. In the Levantine societies that supposedly constitute the fighters’ backbone and base of support, fragmentation and civil strife prevail, either overtly, as in Syria, or beneath the surface, as in Lebanon and Iraq.
One of the ugliest elements of this bleak portrait came to light at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, which unfortunately showed that the Gaza war has had little impact on US public opinion. Despite Israel's tarnished image, the Democrats’ sharp need for Muslims’ votes in swing states, and prominent Democrats like Elizabeth Warren voicing their opposition, the Democrats refused to platform a Palestinian speaker. In doing so, the Democratic Party, the broad tent that is home to voters who tend to support Palestinian rights, has unequivocally prioritized the Jewish state and its "right to defend itself.’’
Yes, the world is unfair, but so long as we live in it and are subject to its influences, we must deal with it, in both justice and injustice, without being hindered by fanciful self-perceptions or weak and misguided assessments of our world-wide influence. This is not said to create despair or to spread a “defeatist culture.” Rather it is said out of fear for the lives of massive numbers of people who have been cast as disposable. This said in the knowledge that it might now be far too late to demand an end to the suicidal operation that began on October 7th. Even if the Iranians and their proxies were to try to end it, Netanyahu, who seeks to prolong the war, could refuse to stop. Nevertheless, speaking out about fears for human lives continues to be urgently needed, especially for those being killed against their will in others’ battles. As for death lovers, they certainly have every right to do as they wish with their own lives, so long as they do not drag anyone else along with them, even if they call them martyrs.
