President-elect Donald J. Trump’s impending return to the White House has raised hopes among some African leaders, who expect it could lead to more investment, more trade deals and less lecturing on issues like democracy and human rights.
Until now, Trump’s most memorable pronouncements on Africa were to describe its countries with an expletive and to ban immigration from some of them.
Nevertheless, interviews with over a dozen current and former African and American officials, along with security analysts and business experts, reveal that, far from dreading Trump’s return, many African leaders are keen to engage him.
“I see a ray of light in this administration,” said Hilda Suka-Mafudze, the African Union ambassador to the United States, at a recent event in Washington where African diplomats and experts questioned former officials from Trump’s first term about what the incoming administration might bring.
Experts say that Trump is expected to take a pragmatic and transactional approach to his dealings with Africa. Because of that, some African leaders now expect that his administration could bring their countries more profit from Africa’s wealth of natural resources, more healthy competition with China and other African partners and more jobs to help the world’s fastest-growing continent deal with a massive youth boom.
Trump has yet to outline any vision for Africa. In his first term, he threatened to slash aid budgets to Africa, and many experts have warned that his administration will pose great dangers to human rights, public health, humanitarian aid and the fight against climate change on the continent.
American influence in Africa has also slumped.
A Gallup poll this year showed that China was the most popular power in Africa. The United States lost security access to parts of the jihadist-hit Sahel region amid a spate of coups. American embassies in Africa are understaffed.
So some African leaders and analysts believe that a Trump administration could set a new direction.
One way of increasing trade with Africa, many experts said, would be to renew, and expand, the African Growth and Opportunity Act — legislation that allows more than 30 African countries to export some products to the US duty-free. The act, which has created hundreds of thousands of jobs, is set to expire next year. The African Union wants it renewed for at least 16 years, but it is unclear whether the act will be a priority for an administration that has made increasing tariffs central.
South Africa’s automobile industry and Kenya’s clothing manufacturers could be some of the biggest losers if the act were not renewed, said David Omojomolo, an Africa economist at the research firm Capital Economics.
The African Export-Import Bank, a Pan-African financial institution in Cairo, has hired a lobby group in Washington to help push for its renewal. The group’s leader said her team was already speaking with top officials and insiders in Trump’s orbit.
“They are going to have a transactional, enterprise-driven approach that puts America first,” said Rosa Whitaker, the former assistant US trade representative for Africa for presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. But, she added, “we can’t put America first if we keep putting Africa last.”
As Africa’s economic ties with other nations — principally China — have grown, the importance of its business with the United States has shriveled. In 2000, over 20 percent of African exports went to the United States. In 2022, less than 5 percent did, according to the World Bank.
From 2000 to 2020, Africa represented just one percent of US foreign direct investments. These investments have shrunk by a third from 2014 to 2022, according to United Nations trade data.
“US companies jump over Africa and invest directly in China and India, but our door is open,” said Olushegun Adjadi Bakari, the foreign minister of Benin, one of Africa’s leading cotton producers.
Countering China’s influence in Africa, including competition for rare earth minerals powering things like electric vehicles and wind turbines, will be central to the Trump administration’s strategy, according to political and economic analysts.
They also say that Trump is likely to keep the Lobito Corridor — a signature Biden railway project planned to stretch from the mineral-rich Democratic Republic of Congo to Angola’s Atlantic coast through Zambia — to secure supply chains.
But the incoming administration will be playing catch-up. China is Africa’s largest trading partner and a major financier of roads and ports, and it is fast laying out the 5G networks that will power Africa’s digital future.
American companies sometimes find it hard to compete against China in Africa and frequently cite reputational risk — particularly that of child labor in supply chains — and red tape to explain their reluctance to invest in Africa.
African leaders have repeatedly said they want to do business with both China and America, and not just pick one side.
“The world is a rainbow — it’s not made of two colors,” said President João Lourenço of Angola.
The New York Times
