January has painful connotations in Tehran. Iran cannot forget what happened on the third of that month in 2020. A man far away crossed what it considered a red line. Qasem Soleimani was killed near Baghdad Airport. The commander of the Quds Force, the architect of the "proxies strategy" and the project of a "big strike" against Israel, was killed.
This January, Tehran cannot help dreading the 20th. That day, the White House will once again fall into the hands of the man who ordered Soleimani’s assassination. The man who had withdrawn from the nuclear agreement and clogged the veins of Iran’s economy.
The pain associated with this month might have been bearable if not for the bitterness of the terrible month that preceded it. A man named Bashar al-Assad, whom Iran had thrown the kitchen sink to keep in power, fell. Soleimani had managed to convince Vladimir Putin to intervene and save him from the “flood” of popular opposition, and that is what happened. The Iranian-Russian intervention extended the life of Assad’s regime, but "Mr. President" chose to save himself from the “flood” that a man named Ahmad al-Sharaa had precipitated from Idlib.
Bashar boarded a plane to go into exile with no desire to fight it out in the ring, avoiding the defiance that had ended the lives of Muammar Gaddafi and Ali Abdullah Saleh. He left the stage without a masterful final scene, an art perfected by Saddam Hussein, his Baathist “comrade.”
Assad’s flight crowned a year of painful months for Iran that witnessed the assassinations of Hassan Nasrallah and Yahya Sinwar, as well as Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination while he was being hosted by the IRGC in Tehran. Benjamin Netanyahu responded to Sinwar and Nasrallah with a “flood” of flames that devastated Gaza and Lebanon, sparing none of the Iranian “advisers” in Syria. The result: Assad’s regime fell like a ripe fruit.
In his office in Tehran, Masoud Pezeshkian flips through documents and days. His misfortune was that he became president during the time of floods. The man had dreamt of gradually, cautiously opening windows, forging a durable truce if ending the wars was impossible. He had hoped to focus more on the economy and improving the living conditions of his people to regain their trust after a series of betrayals and disappointments. However, the escalating roars of the region are alarming, leaving him no room to catch his breath. True, the Syria dossier and Iran’s proxies were never the president’s prerogative. They are handled by the generals of the IRGC and the Quds Force, under the Supreme Leader's watchful eye. Yet, it is equally true that pressing challenges cannot be ignored.
Understanding the state of play is necessary, even if the conclusions are as painful as the analysis itself. Pezeshkian knows that Hamas has fought ferociously. But he also knows that Gaza will soon step out of the military arena to focus on reconstruction and tending to its wounds. Even if a deal to exchange prisoners is concluded, leading to the release of Palestinian detainees, the fact remains that Gaza has been devastated and has paid a heavy price in human lives.
He paces in his office. In the border villages, Hezbollah fought fiercely and paid a heavy price. However, this does not change the fact that it suffered two monumental losses: the loss of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who left a void that will be nearly impossible to fill, and the loss of its strategic depth in Syria, which is impossible to replace because of simple geography. Without its Syrian depth, Hezbollah cannot wage war against Israel, especially after the recent conflict exposed the immense gap in capabilities between it and Israel.
Hezbollah has to choose between difficult options. The Lebanese-Israeli border is being monitored by UN Resolution 1701 and an American general. Meanwhile, Soleimani’s road to Beirut from Tehran has been firmly sealed.
The shocks in Syria were too great to endure. The Resistance Axis crumbled. Several countries have recently issued firm statements: “The era of armed factions and parallel armies must end.” “Factions must be brought back to their territories.” “They do not have the right to launch rockets and drones on regional missions.” “Only the state should have the right to bear arms. The treasury cannot pay the salaries to paramilitaries accused of terrorist acts.” Iraq refuses to be a battleground, and the missiles of the Houthis cannot compensate for the silence of other proxies.
The punishment was severe. The Israeli machine is now threatening Iran itself, and the US is on the same page. The US has made two demands of Iran: no regional proxies and no nuclear bomb. These are extremely tough times for the country and the Supreme Leader.
Pezeshkian sifts through the Syrian scenes. It is clear that Damascus draws from an entirely different lexicon. Ahmed al-Sharaa, now spending his time reassuring guests, has suggested that the map has been redrawn, nothing more- "flooding" is not on the agenda. Yet the Resistance Axis’ Syrian linchpin has been crushed, leaving its string of alliances in disarray.
Visitors speculate about what goes on in Sharaa’s mind. He began his tenure by demanding that factions dissolve and join the Ministry of Defense. Will he attempt to emulate the Turkish model, or will the tides bring a more hardline approach? One thing is certain: the visitors did not shed a tear over Iran's removal from Syria.
Bringing Syria back into the flood for the Resistance Axis seems exceedingly unlikely in the foreseeable future. Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces and Lebanon’s Hezbollah do not have the capacity to do so. Pezeshkian faces many questions. Should Iran change its approach in the region and settle for a more limited role? Had Putin grown weary of Assad’s obstinance and left him to his fate? Has the Sultan of Istanbul decided to punish the Governor of Damascus for repeatedly refusing to shake his hand? The Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has accused Israel and America of being behind what happened in Damascus. He also stated that “one of Syria’s neighbors played a role,” hinting at Türkiye.
The Middle East is a harsh place laden with traps, hardships, and surprises. Pezeshkian is well aware of the painful resonance that this month carries in Tehran. The bitterness of the current scene is only compounded by the many bitter months since Sinwar’s “flood” and al-Sharaa’s “flood.”
