On 13 February, French President Emmanuel Macron hosted in Paris the third international meeting on Syria – the latest attempt to marshal a coordinated international response since the downfall of the Assad regime. The Summit drew together high-level representatives from 20 regional and Western states, including Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Egypt, Jordan, Germany, and the UK, as well as representatives from the UN.
Against the backdrop of ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the meeting sought to align efforts in safeguarding Syria’s sovereignty and security while mobilising key regional and international actors to provide essential aid and economic support. The meeting concluded with the publication of an extensive joint statement, which included pledges of support and outlined a vision for building a free, inclusive, united, sovereign, stable and peaceful Syria. However, words alone will not suffice; it is time to take action. Conditions on the ground are worsening and unless the international community turns written commitments into action, the moment will be lost, and Syria will slide backwards, towards instability.
Warm words, Uncertain Follow-Through
The joint statement pledged full support to Syria’s new authorities within the framework of a process that is “Syrian-led and Syria-owned in the spirit of the fundamental principles of UN Security Council resolution 2254.” Participating states also agreed to mobilise the international community in order to increase the volume and pace of humanitarian assistance. The statement also emphasised the need to lift sanctions hindering Syria’s economic recovery and called for a new coordination framework for aid and reconstruction. Notably, it indicated that participating states would also "provide the support it [Syria] requires to ensure terrorist groups cannot re-establish a safe haven in Syrian territory."
The Summit demonstrated the high-level international support the new Syrian government enjoys. However, the absence of senior representation from the US was notable. While Secretary of State Marco Rubio has previously expressed support for an inclusive transition, arguing that it will help prevent a resurgence of Daesh and other extremist groups, Washington has yet to develop a Syria policy.
European Priorities Take Centre Stage
While the joint statement was comprehensive, it offered very little in tangible outcomes and reflected the international community’s priorities more than it did solutions to Syria’s immediate challenges. Indeed, a key focus was the continued suppression of Daesh, with Macron calling on Syrian foreign minister Asaad al-Shaibani to consider joining the international coalition to combat terrorism: Operation Inherent Resolve. The resurgence of Daesh does pose a threat to Syria’s transition, and the group has increased its operations over the past year; however, the Damascus government requires assistance far beyond striking against extremists.
While counterterrorism serves as a point of commonality among international stakeholders, basing relations with the new Syrian government primarily on this issue would be a strategic and tactical error. After all, the West’s focus on counterterrorism in its relations with Iraq, Yemen, and Libya has served neither host governments nor Western interests well, and painful lessons must have been learned.
The French president also called on the Syrian government to fully integrate the US-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into the Syrian transition, describing them as precious allies. “I think your responsibility today is to integrate them and also to allow these forces to join in,” he said. While this is a sentiment that many Western leaders share, the SDF remains unwilling to cede the autonomy that it secured from the Assad regime. Thus, it is not an issue that can be resolved in a large international summit. Moreover, domestic tensions are impeding cooperation between the SDF and Damascus on other key issues, such as which institution has the authority to exercise control over Daesh prisons.
President Trump’s decision to freeze foreign aid has had an immediate impact on the prisons. The provision of basic goods and aid distribution services in Al-Hol and Roj prisons – closed camps that house tens of thousands of people accused of affiliation with Daesh – has been disrupted. At least one of the organisations operating in the two camps has received waivers allowing it to keep operating, the aid contractor Blumont among them, but others have not. Acting US Ambassador to the UN Dorothy Shea on 12 February told the US Security Council that US aid to Al-Hol and Roj camps "cannot last forever." These closed camps are of particular concern to European leaders who fear that tensions between the Syrian government and SDF could compromise the security of the facilities and incentivise Daesh to spring a prison break.
The Sanctions Dilemma
Participating countries also noted that as the post Assad transitional framework progresses and associated reforms are implemented, they will work towards lifting economic sanctions as soon as possible. Arab states have repeatedly called for the US and EU to lift or suspend sanctions. In response, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas announced that the bloc intends to meet again on 24 February to further discuss lifting sanctions. The UK similarly announced that it intends to bring forward measures to adapt its sanctions regime, including relaxing restrictions applicable to the energy, transport and finance sectors, as well as provisions to facilitate humanitarian delivery. There are no guarantees, however, that sanctions will be lifted soon.
What is often overlooked are the broader geopolitical considerations playing on the minds of Western policy makers. They believe that sanctions relief, if implemented too early and not carefully enough, could enable Russian and/or Iranian actors to benefit, where both have deep rooted and historic connections. It is easy to make pledges. However, policymakers will neither lift nor suspend sanctions until the EU’s conditions are met or the US moves first.
From Rhetoric To Action
The Paris conference showed that Europe is eager to take the lead in supporting Syria, especially given that the US is distracted with other matters, including ending the war between Russia and Ukraine, Gaza and discussions about imposing tariffs on its partners. While the meeting yielded plenty of expressions of intent, unless the swell of goodwill is turned into material support, there is a risk that discontent among Syrians will grow, creating an opening for extremist groups. Next month’s EU pledging conference in Brussels is an opportunity to turn words into actions. If it fails to do so, the risk of instability in Syria will rise.
