There are several ways to interpret what we saw from the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House. However, one thing we are sure of is that Trump knows exactly what he wants and how to get it, and he pursues it relentlessly.
Netanyahu, especially with regard to tariffs and the war in Gaza, had the recent experience of the Ukrainian president at the White House in mind, and he keenly avoided allowing any disagreement or divergence to rise to the surface.
This was obvious in the discussion about the war in Gaza and Israel’s aggressive actions in Syria. Trump stressed he has a good relationship with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and that Netanyahu should be "reasonable" in his demands, seemingly setting limits on Netanyahu.
After saying that the war in Gaza would end "soon," the conversation turned to Iran. Trump announced that the US would be meeting with the Iranians, for "direct" talks, the following Saturday. He surprised everyone, as it signaled that Tehran had made a significant concession after having rejected even the idea of negotiations.
Whether the meeting is actually "direct," or “could become direct if the first round in Oman succeeds” as was reported later, it goes against the bluster in Iran that we have seen from the Supreme Leader and other Iranian officials.
The negotiations between the Americans and Iranians certainly won’t be easy, and it’s hard to predict how they will go. What we do know is that the ultimate outcome will have major repercussions. As an Arab official once told me, “Don’t be surprised if President Trump, who shook hands with the North Korean leader, ends up shaking hands with the Iranian Supreme Leader.”
In politics, anything is possible. Washington and Tehran could reach a surprising agreement, either positive or negative. The balance could also tip in favor of Netanyahu, who is pushing for military strikes against Iran. This prospect remains on the table, especially given the US administration's insistence that any negotiations must end with Iran being stripped of the capacity to produce nuclear weapons.
It is clear that Iran is well aware of the state of play. Just days ago, Reuters reported that Tehran had approved the request of its proxy militias in Iraq to avoid any actions that could provoke a military confrontation with the United States or Israel.
We’ve also seen Iranian officials make statements that distance the country from the Houthis, claiming that the group is not under Tehran’s control. Iran now says it does not seek any military confrontation, and we could see even firmer stances against the Houthis once the negotiations in Muscat begin.
All of this brings us to the position of Hamas in Gaza, which is both the weakest and most perilous. The suffering in the Gaza Strip has aggravated; Netanyahu’s war and the ground incursions continue. Each side, Netanyahu and Hamas, has irreconcilable objectives.
Hamas wants to remain in power and go back to the status quo of October 6, 2023. Netanyahu, meanwhile, wants to resolve all of his internal political battles and crush his rivals in Israel; thus, there is no talk of a peace process or any steps toward a two-state solution.
Accordingly, Iran is now backing down. Its proxies are being broken. The Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq are hunkering down. The Houthis are facing their inevitable fate. Hezbollah is being weakened. Hamas is not prioritizing Palestinian national interests, and it has made no clear or realistic demands. This is madness.
