The most dangerous impediment to the Lebanese authorities’ current efforts to restore the state is that the country sits atop a dangerous minefield of “zombie” weapons and “zombie” banks. The camp of illegitimate arms intimidates rivals by clinging to narratives that defend its maintenance. Just 90 days after the election of President Joseph Aoun and the formation of a government headed by Nawaf Salam, the depth of the entanglement and overlapping interests between the banking cartel and the deep state has become patently obvious.
Today, the United States seeks to accelerate regional shifts. It has pressured Lebanon to swiftly normalize ties, showing little concern for internal obstacles and domestic considerations. It justifies Israeli assaults by describing them as preemptive measures... and ignores the aggravation of expanding Zionist crimes. Meanwhile, the recklessness of Hezbollah is reflected by its insistence on “resistance.” However, no one knows how, or to what end, it will resist. The party openly insists on maintaining its arsenal, which has become a burden, both on Hezbollah and the country.
It has nothing to say about Nawaf Salam’s positions (emphasizing that arms must be monopolized by the legitimate authorities, ending the worn-out “tripartite formula,” and affirming the state's responsibility to complete the liberation) but to present the prime minister as pursuing a campaign of surrender.
For its part, Israel’s goals are becoming increasingly clear: after “stray” rockets were fired, the Israeli Minister of War announced Israel’s intention to maintain the occupation for five more years. A few wooden homes built by locals were demolished, signaling that returning is forbidden and that return and reconstruction are contingent on establishing political relations between the two countries.
US envoy Morgan Ortagus visited and met with top officials, many ministers, the Central Bank Governor, and party leaders, in the meantime, to discuss issues related to arms, financial reform, the cash economy, and the parallel economy. The coverage has focused on her recommendation that Lebanon adopt a swift timeline for disarmament and reform. Moreover, her discussions reportedly showed that Lebanese officials are broadly convinced that a capable state cannot be built before imposing the right to bear arms becomes exclusive to state forces.
The officials also underscored the peril of stagnation, delay, and misguided bets. In this context, envoy Ortagus stressed that time is a limiting factor, warning them against pinning their hopes on the US–Iran negotiations, as that could cost Lebanon crucial opportunities. It was also made clear in the discussions that Lebanon’s rejection of the three negotiating committees does not mean that the US has abandoned the idea.
Between American pressure, the unchecked criminality of the Zionist regime, and Hezbollah’s obstruction of their project to develop a state that could meet the public’s aspirations, the collusion between the party and the forces of the sectarian spoil-sharing regime has become evident. Thus, the comprehensive reform necessary remains a casualty, with the establishment of a normal, civil state suspended.
Lebanon lost the popular momentum that followed the appointment of Nawaf Salam as Prime Minister. That moment could have imposed the formation of the kind of government we have long hoped for- a government capable of making substantial changes. Instead, the country finds itself with a new version of the so-called “national unity” government. The fact that the cabinet includes highly qualified individuals is not enough: most ministers were put in place through sectarian power-sharing allocations, and a significant portion of the political forces in parliament are represented in government. Thus, the contradictory stances of some ministers merely reflect the depth and nature of the divisions between these forces. In other words, by dismissing any discussion of a real program and focusing solely on names, the country missed the opportunity to form a government that is above the sectarian power centers that have prevailed since the end of the civil war. The setback loss, however, is in the scope and ambition of the reform process, which has already delayed several decades.
Today, the government is taking some limited but noteworthy actions: the cabinet’s proposal of a draft law to lift banking secrecy to parliament, discussions on restructuring the banking sector, and the annulment of decrees issued by the Mikati government that had illegally allocated public maritime property, which could pave the way for reclaiming other looted coastal properties and communal lands, especially in the South.
However, the mafia-style alliance of the deep state has, to push back against accountability and prevent both the removal of banking secrecy and the restructuring of bankrupt banks, launched a vicious campaign targeting the government's positive measures. Its mouthpieces have even begun calling for a general amnesty for financial crimes.
For its part, the banking cartel has presented the President with its own proposal, suggesting that state assets and gold reserves be sold under the pretext of putting them to productive use. At the same time, media outlets have been weaponized to misrepresent the positions of the “Change MPs,” and to demonize human rights organizations, independent media platforms, and public figures who call for accountability and insist on protecting depositors’ rights.
In addition to confining weapons to legitimate state forces, we need a new financial policy. The alternative policy begins with restructuring the “zombie” banks led by a cartel that gambled with people’s deposits, smuggled their money abroad, and whose bank balance sheets are troubled and of dubious asset valuation. These banks should have been liquidated the moment they stopped honoring payments. Instead, they were kept alive by an alliance to protect the corrupt, plunder from public funds and deposits (first through “financial engineering” schemes and then through the Sayrafa exchange platform), and constantly illegal BDL circulars that have melted away citizens’ deposits!
