“We will meet in the great state of Alaska,” President Donald Trump announced, choosing his words carefully. The connotation was hardly lost on Vladimir Putin, who seems to have gotten into his head the idea of reclaiming a territory that had belonged to Russia until it was sold to the United States in 1867.
Alaska, in this sense, is more than a geographic territory. To this day, it remains a symbol of the countries’ shared history. Russia’s legacy has not disappeared, not as a legend of the distant past, but as part of the fabric of Alaska’s local identity. Why, then, did both Washington and Moscow so quickly agree to hold this meeting? By all accounts, it seems that Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff has played his hand effectively.
Pragmatism, more than anything else, will shape the encounter. The two sides are expected to discuss terms for ending a war that has dragged on for over three years, squandering lives and resources without achieving anything.
Putin, for his part, is eager to ease tensions with Washington. He wants the sanctions and economic strains fueling discontent at home removed. Nonetheless, skeptics suspect he is simply running out the clock, buying time to gain leverage in negotiations with Ukraine.
Witkoff has reminded the Kremlin of an old truth: great powers must define their spheres of influence. Yalta underscored this axiom in 1945, when Roosevelt and Churchill met Stalin to redraw the map of Europe after the war.
But does that mean Trump will simply accept the terms Putin has long set out for ending the war?
His demands are well known: recognition of Russian sovereignty in eastern Ukraine, an explicit commitment to preventing Kyiv from ever joining NATO, restriction on Ukraine's army, and assurances that Kyiv will remain friendly to Russia.
Witkoff, however, has suggested that a more limited bargain could be within reach: Russia consolidates its control over Crimea and the Donbas, but tacitly abandons claims to Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. For Moscow, such a step would mark a retreat from the maximalist positions it had insisted on previously.
Trump sees opportunity. A negotiated end to the Ukraine conflict, following his success in brokering peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, would strengthen his case for a Nobel Peace Prize, securing a seat at the table of great American presidents. Most importantly, perhaps, Trump wants to end the specter of a wider nuclear clash.
At home, a peace deal would allow his administration to focus on economic priorities. It would also allow the United States to focus on its longstanding military and economic rivalry with China.
Not surprisingly, the notion of a US-Russia bargain unsettles US allies. Vice President JD Vance has already flown to London seeking to build common ground ahead of Friday’s meeting. It is no secret that Europe agrees with US former National Security Advisor John Bolton: the Alaska summit is, in itself, already a diplomatic win for Putin.
History continues to unsettle humanity, and geography remains the arena in which interests and ambitions are furthered. Europeans are particularly haunted by the idea that concessions in Alaska could echo Neville Chamberlain’s missteps with Nazi Germany in 1938, offering Moscow a chance to catch its breath before pressing further into Ukraine or the Baltic states.
Success in Alaska, then, is far from guaranteed. If Putin insists on a skewed deal and Trump balks, the summit could end as abruptly as Reagan’s meeting with Gorbachev in Reykjavik, when he abruptly left as he had been seeking an end to the cold war.
Even if terms are agreed, another question looms over the talks: would Volodymyr Zelensky, his mandate having already ended, accept to cede territory? Such a decision would require a referendum that puts the question to his people.
Hegel’s notion of the “cunning of history” is in the air in Alaska. The Russians feel its presence particularly strongly. Putin still believes that the Soviet Union’s collapse was the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20th century, and he seems convinced that the West intends to subject Russia to the same soon.
For now, speculation abounds. But Friday is not far off. Let us wait and see.
