Sudan is confronting a grave existential threat: fragmentation and disintegration along ethnic lines. The country’s divisions imperil what remains of Sudan after it had been ravaged by the war and its long history of prior conflicts. Still reeling from the repercussions of partition after the secession of South Sudan, Sudan now faces the specter of a new wave of chaos and division. Though many foreign actors covet its resources, Sudan’s crisis is primarily domestic.
The long and bitter struggle between the legacy of the Mahdist State, the military establishment, and Islamist forces over the war-torn country has peaked. The country has long been gripped by tensions resulting from its ethnic and religious diversity. In his book “The Fighting Sudanese,” British officer Henry Cecil Jackson presents the Sudanese as “innately courageous and loyal natural warriors.”
Since the current war began, both sides have fought over gold mines and smuggling routes, which they depend on to fund their military operations. The gold mines of Darfur are grand. Competition over Darfur’s vast mineral wealth dates back centuries, and today, gold and other minerals in Darfur have become fodder for a political and economic war, deepening the humanitarian crisis and obstructing efforts to establish peace.
Foreign actors have only aggravated the conflict, with some even pushing for the partition of what remains of Sudan through the establishment of an independent state in Darfur. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have said that rather than leading to Darfur’s secession, their control of El Fasher would reinforce Sudan’s unity because it opens the door to negotiations following a longstanding stalemate, throughout which the army repeatedly insisted they would “fight until the end.” Such rhetoric, however, only brings more bloodshed and perpetuates the civilians’ suffering.
The fall of El Fasher (the capital of Darfur) has redrawn the map of the war and shifted the balance of power. The gold and mineral rich region of Darfur is now almost entirely under the control of the RSF, which sees Darfur as its natural tribal base. Despite the flood of painful footage of executions that indicate civilians are being ethnically cleansed, US President Trump’s advisor on African affairs has called on the RSF to take action to protect civilians.
Historically, after the British left Sudan, El Fasher fell under the rule of the Mahdist State and remained independent during the transitional period led by Sultan Ali Dinar.
The region is being contested between Arab tribes, Arabic-speaking African tribes, and others. It is home to the largest mines in Sudan. Control over these mines is at the heart of the current conflict between Hemedti’s RSF and Burhan’s army.
Since losing over two-thirds of its oil reserves when South Sudan became an independent state, Sudan has sought to double the quantity of gold it extracts to compensate. Most of this gold has been smuggled abroad, however, and none of the profits have contributed to national reconstruction or development, or even to feed or clothe the millions who are going hungry.
Should Darfur secede and become independent, it would run up against major problems despite its wealth. Darfur would be a landlocked country cut off from most of Sudan’s universities (largely located in Khartoum). It would also probably be ravaged by ethnic conflict, meaning that Darfur would remain perpetually unstable and fractured despite all of its gold.
Meanwhile, foreign powers simply stand by and hedge their bets, allowing them to eventually enter negotiations over access to its gold, minerals, and oil, with whichever side emerges victorious- either through “partnerships” or outright control under the guise of investment. The people of Darfur, to whom these resources belong, could be rendered mere guards standing at the gates of their mines, protecting the flow of profits into foreign banks.
If Sudan is to remain united, this brutal war must end. Otherwise, it will disintegrate into smaller states. At the time of writing, the Jeddah Platform remains the most viable framework for reaching a durable solution to Sudan’s crisis.
