Trump’s approach differs than that of his predecessors. He has different friendships, rivalries and ways in running wars. He is a general who runs the battle in person through screens, social media and the telephone. His statements have nothing to do with traditional diplomacy. His threats to NATO are unprecedented. His celebration of the elimination of some of the Iranian leadership in the first strikes of the war are bizarre.
He strikes hard and then proposes negotiations. He doesn’t stop long to listen to who he is talking to. He speaks of Iran’s surrender, ignoring the fact that the regime, which doesn’t have the ability to win this war, is incapable of declaring surrender or admitting defeat. Iran is not an ordinary country. It is a revolution that refused to embrace the features of a state, its conditions, and commitments towards its neighbors and the world.
In talking about the current war, the roles of three main men come up. The first is General Qassem Soleimani, the slain leader of Iran’s Quds Force. He acted as though a decisive war with Israel was inevitable. He believed that wiping Israel off the map was not impossible, even if it took a series of war. He told several members of the Axis of Resistance that the “major blow” will pummel Israel with rockets and drones fired from several maps. The attacks will destroy Israel’s defenses, image and the Israelis’ trust in it and kick off a major wave of immigration from it.
Soleimani also spoke of changing the features of the region by severing the “American string” that in his view ties together several Arab countries and stands in the way of Iran exporting its revolution. So, he came up with the plan to surround Israel and the targeted Arab countries with a “belt” of tunnels, rockets and drones.
Among Soleimani’s major duties was destabilizing the system that the US set up in Iraq after the ouster of Saddam Hussein’s regime. He destabilized it through allies and the system was hollowed out and a parallel army was set up. After the emergence of ISIS, Soleimani succeeded in establishing and supporting the Popular Mobilization Forces and later transforming it into a legitimate force that operates with a high degree of independence.
Another one of Soleimani’s missions was to end the isolation of Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime after they were accused of being involved in the assassination of Lebanese former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri. The 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel achieved that, with Soleimani himself overseeing battles from Lebanon.
For years, Soleimani succeeded in building what he called “Soleimani armies” in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. He managed to temporarily avert the breach of the Axis of Resistance in Syria when he persuaded Vladimir Putin to intervene to save Assad’s regime from collapse. Soleimani’s fingerprints are also all over developments in Gaza and Sanaa.
Iran tried for years to sever the “American string” without slipping into a direct confrontation with the US. The visiting journalist in Tehran would often be told “you are asking about a war that will never happen” and “Iran goes to the edge of the abyss with the US, but it never fall into it because it is aware that America has the ability to set it back several decades.”
Iran adopted this policy of avoiding the abyss when Trump ordered Soleimani’s assassination near Baghdad airport on January 3, 2020. Iran made do with a “symbolic” response despite how deeply wounded the supreme leader was with the assassination of the man who was closest to his mind and heart.
Trump effectively upturned the conflict between the US and Iran. No one before him dared to take a move so bold as the assassination of commander of the Quds Force and engineer of the “parallel armies”. The decision to assassinate him was more dangerous than the assassination of Osama bin Laden because Soleimani had the backing of a major regional power that operated its “small roaming armies” in several maps.
After Trump’s return to the White House, he was visited by a man whose position allowed him to meet American and Iranian officials over the years. I learned from him that Trump’s generals were pushing the idea of punishing Iran for its nuclear ambitions, harassment of American forces, threats to moderate countries and attempts to seize energy routes and keys to the region. The man said that the Trump administration will not hesitate in carrying out a major coup against the one Iran carried out in the region.
From this position, one can understand why the US has embraced the change that has taken place in Syria and that led to the severing of routes between “Soleimani’s armies”. Here rises the role of the second man, Benjamin Netanyahu, who succeeded in convincing Trump that Iran and “Soleimani’s armies” are an imminent threat to not just Israel, but the US as well.
Today, we can speak of three major errors committed by the Iranian leadership. The first was sliding into a direct war with history's most powerful army, as touted by Trump. The second is revealing its hostile intentions towards Arb Gulf countries and Jordan after pounding them with rockets and drones that far exceed the numbers it has fired at Israel. The third is believing that the Hormuz Strait is a hostage that it can capture to squeeze the global economy.
We have entered the second month of the major war. If the American and Israeli strikes succeed in destroying Iran’s offensive and defensive capabilities and its ability to threaten its neighbors and the straits, then the region will find itself confronted with a new reality in Iran and the region in general, especially in countries where “Soleimani’s armies” operate. Iran’s loss of ability to fire at regional countries effectively means a change in regime, position and balances of power between it and its neighbors.
Trump is the most dangerous general against Iran and “Soleimani’s armies”. The success of his coup against the long Iranian coup will change the features of the region and the various balances of power there. America may have acted decisively in the region, while Russia appears mired in Ukraine and China has opted for wisdom and reason.
